I. Industrial Silicon

January-June: Reaching Rock Bottom

Production resumed across northern industrial silicon production areas, with the supply side continuing to drive prices downward. Starting in April, market sentiment turned pessimistic amid tariff war impacts, compounded by falling costs. Industrial silicon prices plummeted further, with the benchmark SI2507 contract hitting its annual low of 6,990 RMB/ton on June 4.

June-July: Rising Costs, Improving Sentiment, Price Rebound

From June, the anti-cannibalization trend gained significant momentum. Prices across industrial silicon's upstream and downstream sectors surged rapidly, with prices within the industrial silicon segment itself rising in tandem. However, this price increase lacked fundamental support, leading prices to subsequently revert to range-bound fluctuations.

II. Polysilicon

January-March: Photovoltaic rush-installation demand provided support, with effective spot price defense. Compounded by market concerns over registered warehouse receipt volumes, futures prices remained elevated, oscillating around the 44,000 RMB/ton center.

April-June: As the rush to install concluded, downstream prices began declining. Polysilicon futures prioritized fundamental factors and entered a downtrend. The main PS2508 contract hit its lowest level since listing at 30,400 RMB/ton on June 28.

June-September: The anti-cannibalization policy was reintroduced in June with a stronger stance than before, triggering a more vigorous market response and a sharp rally in futures prices. Amid persistent market rumors, futures volatility intensified.

November-December: Warehouse receipt issues resurfaced, driving widening contango in polysilicon futures. Absolute contract prices gradually climbed, with the main PS2605 contract hitting its peak of ¥61,985/ton on December 18.

June-September: The anti-involution policy was reintroduced in June with a stronger stance than before, triggering a more intense market reaction and a rapid surge in futures prices. During this period, various market rumors circulated incessantly, amplifying price volatility.

November-December: Warehouse receipt issues resurfaced, driving widening spread arbitrage in polysilicon futures. The absolute price per contract gradually increased, with the main PS2605 contract reaching its peak of 61,985 RMB/ton on December 18.

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