On February 11, 2026, data from the Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network showed that the domestic average price of neodymium metal reached CNY1,085,000 per ton, surging by CNY 35,000 in a single day—a 3.33% increase—with the price range climbing to CNY 1,080,000-1,090,000 per ton. The average price of neodymium oxide simultaneously jumped to 905,000 RMB/ton, surging by CNY 30,000 in a single day, a 3.43% increase, with the price range climbing to 900,000-910,000 RMB/ton.

Supply Side: Quota Controls and Resource Nationalism Converge to Create Supply Crisis

Current neodymium supply faces dual constraints domestically and internationally. Domestic mining volumes are strictly regulated with limited quota increases, while stricter environmental standards have impacted production rates at small and medium-sized mines in key producing regions. Overseas supply from major resource hubs remains highly uncertain due to non-economic disruptions, making new sources unlikely to provide effective short-term substitutes. Concurrently, major consumer nations are redirecting resource trade flows, further complicating the supply landscape. This dual-constraint scenario of “domestic tightness and overseas turmoil” has driven social inventories to persistently low levels, tightened spot market supply, and fostered strong reluctance among holders to sell.

Demand Side: Dual Engines of New Energy and Robotics Drive Explosive Growth

The demand landscape exhibits stable growth in traditional sectors and rapid expansion in emerging fields. The new energy vehicle industry serves as the core growth engine, with its global production surge continuously fueling demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets. Installation targets in green energy sectors like wind power also provide stable demand support. Notably, cutting-edge industries represented by humanoid robots are entering an accelerated development phase. Their potential share of neodymium demand is expected to rise rapidly, becoming a significant growth driver. To manage cost volatility risks, downstream magnet material enterprises are broadly shifting toward more secure procurement models, further impacting spot market liquidity.

Policy Front: Export Controls and Industry Consolidation Reshape Pricing Logic

Policy measures are reshaping rare earth pricing dynamics through dual actions: domestic regulation and international strategic positioning. On one hand, major producing nations have strengthened resource controls via export licensing, increasing costs for uncertified products. On the other, key consumer markets are integrating rare earths into green trade mechanisms, driving low-carbon upgrades across the supply chain. Simultaneously, the establishment of strategic reserves for critical minerals and accelerated resource exploration globally reflect rising resource nationalism. Furthermore, ongoing industrial consolidation enables leading enterprises to lock in most market demand through long-term agreements, enhancing their pricing influence on the supply side.

Macroeconomic and Capital Dynamics: Sector Differentiation and Industrial Capital Biding Time

Macroeconomic volatility has amplified price sensitivity for strategic resources. A weaker U.S. dollar has boosted the appeal of dollar-denominated resource assets. Financial market capital has significantly increased its focus on the rare metals sector, with thematic funds attracting substantial inflows, reflecting strong bullish market expectations. On the industrial capital front, leading companies in the sector have demonstrated robust performance in capital markets, signaling investor recognition of the industry's sustained high growth momentum. Meanwhile, persistent price inversions between domestic and international markets highlight the potential structural fragmentation risks facing global supply chains.

Market Outlook: Post-holiday supply-demand mismatch may trigger new price surge

In the short term, the neodymium market is expected to enter a phase of intensifying supply-demand tension. With major downstream industrial projects resuming operations and new order deliveries accelerating after the Spring Festival, the existing global supply-demand gap may widen further, potentially pushing product prices into new price ranges. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, global neodymium demand is projected to maintain robust growth, while supply-side expansion remains limited. Against this backdrop, companies with secure resource reserves, dominant market share, and certified low-carbon production processes will gain greater pricing influence. Investors should also monitor potential risks including geopolitical supply disruptions, slower-than-expected mass production in emerging sectors, and shifts in global macro liquidity.

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