Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic light rare earth market price has continued to rise recently. On February 3rd, the SunSirs rare earth index was 654 points, an increase of 11 points compared to the previous day, a decrease of 35.05% compared to the highest point of 1,007 points (February 24, 2022) within the cycle, and an increase of 141.33% compared to the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Domestic prices for neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium alloy, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide all showed an upward trend. As of the 4th, the price of neodymium oxide was 820,000 RMB/ton, a 3.47% increase since the beginning of February; the price of neodymium metal was 982,500 RMB/ton, a 3.69% increase since February; the price of praseodymium oxide was 790,000 RMB/ton, a 3.27% increase; the price of praseodymium metal was 960,000 RMB/ton, a 2.69% increase; the price of praseodymium-neodymium alloy was 920,000 RMB/ton, a 0.55% increase; and the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 755,000 RMB/ton, remaining unchanged since the beginning of February.

Market analysis

In February, domestic light rare earth prices continued to rise, with strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth raw material market. Macroeconomic news indicated a tightening supply-demand balance for praseodymium-neodymium products, further fueling market expectations of price increases. Under the combined effect of insufficient supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium-neodymium rose significantly. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the transaction price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26,834 RMB/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase, directly pushing up the cost of downstream products such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide. Strong demand, driven by the booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances, led to increased orders for downstream magnetic material manufacturers. In 2026, the global supply-demand gap for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 0.9 million tons, and the supply-demand imbalance continues to expand, driving the light rare earth market higher.

After years of restructuring, China's rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large corporations and characterized by relatively concentrated raw material sources.  With the continuous development of the rare earth industry abroad, China's share of global rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought some positive effects to the domestic rare earth market.

Market outlook:

Recently, the ordering and purchasing sentiment of magnetic material companies has been generally weak. The supply and demand dynamics in the light rare earth market continue to be volatile, with an imbalance in the supply and demand of praseodymium-neodymium series products becoming apparent, leading to continuously rising prices for praseodymium-neodymium. Furthermore, in the long term, the trend of sustained growth in end-user demand from industrial robots, new energy vehicles, and wind turbines remains unchanged, and the penetration rate of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets in these end markets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream players, the light rare earth market is expected to remain at a high level.

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