Light Rare Earths Strengthen While Heavy Rare Earths Correct; Rare Earth Ore Prices Rise Steadily

I. Core Price Overview

- Rare Earth Carbonate: ¥59,100–59,500/ton, average price ¥59,300/ton

- Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide: ¥748,700/ton, +11.03% MoM, leading gainer among light rare earths

- Praseodymium-Neodymium Metal: ¥898,800/ton, +1.4% MoM, prices continue upward trend

- Terbium Oxide: ¥6.10 million/ton, down 4.98% month-on-month, leading heavy rare earth declines

- Dysprosium Oxide: ¥1.33 million/ton, down 10.74% month-on-month, showing significant heavy rare earth correction

II. Light Rare Earth Product Price Trends (February 2, 2026)

Lanthanum Oxide La₂O₃: ¥4,300–4,700/ton, average price ¥4,500/ton

Cerium Oxide CeO₂: ¥20,300–24,300/ton, average price ¥22,300/ton

Nd₂O₃ 732,500 RMB/ton +

Pr₆O₁₁ 733,300 RMB/ton

NdPr₂O₃ 748,700 RMB/ton

Pr-Nd Metal 898,800 RMB/ton

Yttrium Oxide Y₂O₃ 77,000 RMB/ton

The light rare earth sector has recently demonstrated robust performance, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices surging from approximately ¥580,000/ton at the end of December 2025 to ¥748,700/ton—a rise exceeding 29%. This surge is primarily driven by strong demand for neodymium-iron-boron magnets in new energy vehicles, wind power, and other sectors, coupled with ongoing supply-side policy tightening.

III. Heavy Rare Earth Product Price Trends (February 2, 2026)

Terbium oxide (Tb₄O₇) ¥6.10 million/ton

Dysprosium oxide (Dy₂O₃) ¥1.33 million/ton

Holmium oxide (Ho₂O₃) ¥525,000–530,000/ton (average ¥527,500/ton)

Erbium Oxide Er₂O₃ 200,000-205,000 RMB/ton Average Price 202,500 RMB/ton

Gadolinium oxide (Gd₂O₃): ¥178,000–182,000/ton, average price ¥180,000/ton

The heavy rare earth market has recently experienced a notable correction, with both terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide prices declining to varying degrees. This primarily stems from excessive prior price increases, prompting some downstream enterprises to adopt a wait-and-see approach and slow procurement pace. Concurrently, market expectations regarding heavy rare earth supply have improved.

IV. Rare Earth Metals and Alloys Price Trends

1. Lanthanum-Cerium Metals: Priced at approximately ¥18,000–20,000/ton. Market demand remains stable with minimal price fluctuations.

2. Neodymium Metal (Nd): ¥880,000–885,000/ton, down ¥5,000/ton week-on-week. Supported by rising neodymium oxide prices, the decline was limited.

3. Praseodymium-Neodymium Alloy: ¥890,000–910,000/ton. Weekly increase of 11.11%. As a direct raw material for neodymium-iron-boron magnets, demand remains robust.

4. Dysprosium Metal: Dy, ¥1,600,000–1,650,000/ton. Prices adjusted downward in tandem with dysprosium oxide, declining by approximately 10%.

V. Market Analysis and Trend Outlook

1. Pronounced Price Divergence: Light rare earths surge strongly while heavy rare earths correct from highs, defining the current market. Light rare earth demand benefits from rapid growth in new energy vehicles and wind power, while supply-side constraints from national quotas maintain tight balance and price support. Heavy rare earths experience rational price corrections as downstream enterprises digest inventories following earlier excessive gains.

2. Strengthened Cost Support: Rare earth concentrates have seen six consecutive price hikes, with cost pressures continuously shifting upstream. This provides robust support for light rare earth prices, which are expected to remain elevated.

3. Policy Impact: Data from the China Rare Earth Industry Association shows the rare earth price index rose from 217.00 on December 31, 2025, to 242.70 on January 26, 2026—an 11.84% increase. Policy support continues to favor the rare earth industry's development.

4. Future Outlook: Institutions forecast the light rare earth market will maintain a “tight balance leaning toward scarcity” in 2026, with prices likely 15%-30% higher than 2025 levels. Heavy rare earths, however, may experience fluctuating downward trends due to relatively ample supply, with oxides like terbium and dysprosium potentially facing further corrections.

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