This week (February 2-5), China's rare earth market exhibited a distinct pattern of “light rare earths leading gains while heavy rare earths diverged.” Market trading activity increased compared to the previous week, with price movements influenced by multiple factors including supply-demand dynamics, downstream stockpiling, policy support, and overseas supply chains. Light rare earths, as the representative category, demonstrated a pronounced upward trend.

Light Rare Earth Segment

Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide and Praseodymium-Neodymium Metal: As core light rare earth products, both experienced robust price increases primarily driven by tight supply and downstream demand. On the supply side, the slowdown in domestic rare earth mining quota growth, coupled with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel Group raising rare earth concentrate prices for six consecutive quarters, triggered a chain reaction of price hikes across the entire industry chain. On the demand side, with the Spring Festival approaching, magnet manufacturers have initiated pre-holiday stockpiling, significantly boosting procurement demand for praseodymium-neodymium rare earths. This robust demand has steadily pushed prices higher. Concurrently, policy support has strengthened as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated its commitment to enhancing full-chain oversight of the rare earth industry, cracking down on illegal mining and smuggling. This has provided solid policy backing for prices and further reinforced market bullish expectations.

Cerium Oxide: Prices rose modestly, primarily benefiting from improved industry sentiment and supply-demand balance. On one hand, sustained increases in rare earth concentrate prices drove a slight upward trend in cerium oxide prices in line with the overall industry movement. On the other hand, steady demand release from downstream sectors like glass and ceramics, coupled with moderate market trading activity and a relatively balanced supply-demand situation without significant oversupply, contributed to the modest price increase.

Heavy Rare Earths Segment

Gadolinium Oxide: Prices accelerated upward, primarily driven by low inventory levels and concentrated order releases. On the supply side, domestic heavy rare earth quotas have remained stable for an extended period, keeping gadolinium oxide market inventories low. This, coupled with disruptions in overseas supply chains such as Myanmar's tightening rare earth exports, further intensified supply constraints. On the demand side, orders from downstream sectors like high-end magnetic materials and electronics gradually materialized, boosting procurement demand and driving rapid price increases. This made gadolinium oxide the standout performer among heavy rare earth products this week.

Terbium Oxide: Prices initially dipped before rebounding to achieve a weekly gain, primarily due to underlying demand support and improved market sentiment. Earlier, prices experienced a slight correction due to profit-taking by some investors at elevated levels. However, persistent demand from downstream sectors like high-end magnetic materials prevented sustained declines. Later, as bullish sentiment recovered and procurement demand grew amid rising overseas supply chain uncertainties, prices rebounded, ultimately achieving positive weekly growth. Concurrently, policies from eight government departments promoting stable growth in the non-ferrous metals sector, along with initiatives encouraging breakthroughs in high-end rare earth materials, provided long-term demand support for premium heavy rare earth varieties like terbium oxide.

Overall, this week's price increases for rare earth products stemmed from the combined effects of tight supply, downstream stockpiling, policy support, and supply chain synergy.

Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide and Praseodymium-Neodymium Metal: These demonstrated the strongest performance this week, with prices continuing their upward trajectory. Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide rose from CNY 731,500/ton to CNY 749,200/ton, accumulating a weekly increase of CNY 17,700/ton. Neodymium metal rose from CNY 885,500/ton to CNY 909,300/ton, accumulating a weekly increase of CNY 23,800/ton. Tight market supply combined with pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream magnet manufacturers supported steady price growth.

Cerium Oxide: Prices edged up slightly from CNY 12,000/ton to CNY 12,200/ton, accumulating a weekly increase of CNY 0.02/ton. Market trading activity remained stable.

Lanthanum Oxide: Price remained stable at ¥46,000/ton with no fluctuation, reflecting relatively balanced market supply and demand.

Dysprosium Oxide: Price edged down from ¥1,396,300/ton to ¥1,384,300/ton, accumulating a weekly decline of ¥12,000/ton. This was primarily influenced by profit-taking from earlier highs and a temporary weakening of downstream demand.

Terbium Oxide: Prices fluctuated with a dip followed by a rebound. After a slight decline from ¥6,125,400/ton to ¥6,116,200/ton, prices rebounded to ¥6,140,000/ton on the final trading day. The weekly cumulative increase was ¥14,600/ton, demonstrating strong price resilience supported by end-user demand.

Gadolinium Oxide: Prices accelerated upward, climbing from ¥200,700/ton to ¥217,000/ton, with a weekly gain of ¥16,300/ton. Low market inventories combined with order releases drove the price increase.

Hollandium Oxide: Prices initially declined before rebounding, falling from ¥552,000/ton to ¥535,000/ton before recovering to ¥550,200/ton. The weekly price showed a marginal decrease of ¥1,800/ton, with overall fluctuations remaining moderate.