Price trend

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, domestic light rare earth prices soared in February. On February 9th, the SunSirs Rare Earth Index stood at 703 points, up 59 points from the beginning of the month, down 30.19% from the highest point of 1007 points (February 24, 2022), and up 159.41% from the lowest point of 271 points (September 13, 2015). (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011 to present.)

Prices of neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium alloy, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide all rose in China. As of February 10th, the price of neodymium oxide was 872,500 RMB/ton, up 10.09% from the beginning of the month; neodymium metal was 1,065,000 RMB/ton, up 12.40% from the beginning of February; praseodymium oxide was 845,000 RMB/ton, up 10.24%; praseodymium metal was 1,030,000 RMB/ton, up 10.16%; praseodymium-neodymium alloy was 985,000 RMB/ton, up 7.65%; and praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 815,000 RMB/ton, up 7.95% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

In early February, domestic light rare earth prices surged, with strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market. Macroeconomic news emerged indicating a tightening supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium products. This was supported by expectations of continued supply shortages due to the post-Lunar New Year shutdown of a separation plant, coupled with active restocking by some major magnetic material manufacturers. Market sentiment remained bullish, with significantly increased inquiries and a substantial rise in spot prices for praseodymium and neodymium. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised their first-quarter rare earth concentrate trading prices to 26,834 RMB/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase, directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide. Rigid demand booming and the development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances drove increased orders for downstream magnetic material manufacturers. The global praseodymium and neodymium oxide supply-demand gap is projected to widen to 0.9 million tons in 2026, further widening the supply-demand gap and driving the light rare earth market higher. However, due to the current large price fluctuations, the actual transaction situation in downstream industries has not kept pace.

After years of regulation, China's rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and with relatively concentrated raw materials. As the foreign rare earth industry continued to develop, China's share of rare earth production had declined from 90% to 70%, which brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.

Market outlook

Recently, magnetic material companies were eager to place orders, and the supply and demand game in the light rare earth market continued. The market sentiment was bullish, and the market price of praseodymium and neodymium continued to rise. In addition, the long-term growth trend of end-user demand such as industrial robots, new energy vehicles, and wind turbines remained unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in end-users is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream, the light rare earth market still has an upward trend.

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