Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic market for 1# antimony ingots saw a slight overall increase during this period (February 2nd - February 9th), with prices rising from 163,500 RMB/ton to 164,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.61%. Driven by post-holiday price expectations, prices fluctuated slightly, with spot prices remaining stable. Low-priced supplies were tight, and the market was in a pre-holiday price stabilization and consolidation phase. Trading activity gradually weakened as the Spring Festival approaching.

Market analysis

International Markets: Overseas Markets Continued to Weaken

The overseas antimony market continued to weaken last week, showing no signs of stabilization, but the decline slowed significantly, and the price difference between high and low prices gradually narrowed. Low-priced supplies in Southeast Asia were relatively concentrated. Although demand recovered somewhat after the holiday, the recovery was weak, and procurement was insufficient. Coupled with high regional inventory and slow digestion of supplies, prices remained under pressure, although the recent decline had narrowed compared to the previous period.

Supply side: Refineries were reluctant to sell, resulting in tight supply.

This period, domestic refineries generally had a positive outlook on the post-holiday market, resulting in low willingness to sell. Many actively controlled their shipments to reduce the amount circulating in the spot market, leading to a continued scarcity of low-priced goods. Holders and traders were reluctant to release their stock, opting to reduce spot market activity and wait for a post-holiday market rally, further exacerbating the tight balance in the spot market. Replenishment of raw materials remained difficult, with high-quality, low-priced antimony concentrate resources scarce. Coupled with seasonal factors limiting operations at some mines, the tight supply of raw materials supported refineries' willingness to maintain prices. The market as a whole lacked the incentive to actively lower prices, providing a floor for spot prices.

Demand side:

In the traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame retardant materials account for about 55% and glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China's photovoltaic industry, the main increase in antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.

Antimony oxide: As a core deep-processed product in the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide, with antimony trioxide as the mainstream category, is primarily used in flame retardants, while also extending to photovoltaic glass, electronic materials, and other applications. Its market trend is strongly correlated with antimony ingots. This period's price performance was stable, with exports showing moderate performance. Market demand was mainly driven by rigid procurement, and sentiment was cautious.

Photovoltaics: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass nationwide remained stable, with no production line adjustments on the supply side, and prices remained firm in the new month. Pre-Spring Festival stockpiling coupled with a silver price correction led to a short-term increase in actual procurement, with sporadic signing of long-term contracts; however, the industry remains at a low level, with companies experiencing significant losses and focusing on price reductions to reduce inventory. The long-term supply-demand imbalance persists, providing limited short-term support for antimony demand.

Market outlook:

The domestic antimony market entered the final stage before the Spring Festival. Logistics were gradually shutting down, and stockpiling was in its final countdown, so market trading activity is expected to continue to weaken. Refineries and holders were mainly holding firm on prices and reluctant to sell, while downstream procurement was limited to immediate needs. Neither buyers nor sellers were willing to significantly adjust prices, and it is expected that antimony ingot prices will fluctuate within the current narrow range before the Spring Festival.

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