Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices experienced a slight decline last week. As of February 6th, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel sheets (1.0*1219*2438, tolerance 0.91) was 12,725 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.17% compared to the beginning of the week, but an increase of 5.35% year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool from SunSirs, the price trends of nickel and stainless steel are similar, with an overall downward trend recently.

Market analysis

Last week, total stainless steel inventories reached 1.79 million tons, with both cold rolled and hot rolled steel inventories showing an increase.

Raw Materials: Philippine nickel ore prices continued to rise, with the 1.3% FOB price increasing to US$45/wet ton; Indonesian mines had limited shipments, with some mines failing the MOMS system audit for old quotas, and the approval process for new quotas by ESDM being slow. Nickel ore premiums rose sharply to US$28-32/wet ton. Amid expectations of tight nickel ore supply, Indonesian smelters increased their raw material purchases. Domestic ex-factory prices for high-nickel ferroalloy fell by 10 yuan to 1,020-1,040 yuan/nickel; domestic delivered prices fell by 5 RMB to 1,025-1,050 RMB/nickel; the limited availability of ferrochrome spot resources, coupled with a slowdown in the increase of ferrochrome supply, kept ferrochrome retail prices relatively firm.

Supply and Demand: In January 2026, the estimated crude steel production of domestic stainless steel plants was 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons, a growth of 5.08%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.83%; 300 series production was 1.7957 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 48,500 tons, a growth of 2.78%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.76%. In February, estimated stainless steel crude steel production is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 22.62%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.49%; of which 300 series production was 1.3159 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 26.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.14%. Before the holiday, steel mills increased production cuts, and some steel mills began to shut down for maintenance. Demand was insufficient, with divergence between traditional and emerging sectors. Construction projects slowed down, purchasing power weakened, and downstream enterprises faced significant financial pressure, making it difficult for the demand side to absorb the high price increases. Pre-holiday inventory replenishment was insufficient, social inventory showed a slight accumulation, and warehouse receipts maintained a downward trend.

Market outlook

In the near term, cost support remains, and expectations of reduced supply due to steel mill production cuts persist. However, the boost in demand during the off-season and inventory reduction are still insufficient. With macroeconomic stability and a slow recovery in supply and demand, the fundamentals remain relatively flat. Therefore, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term.

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