Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices rose slightly in January. As of the end of January, the spot price of stainless steel was 12,991.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.12% compared to 11,691.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 6.85%.

According to the annual stainless steel price comparison chart from SunSirs over the past five years, stainless steel prices mostly increased in February.

Market analysis

Raw Materials: The core driver of stainless steel costs in January stemmed from Indonesia's nickel ore policies. Market expectations of a significant reduction in Indonesian nickel ore quotas in 2026, coupled with potential adjustments to pricing methods, jointly pushed up nickel pig iron prices. At the same time, high-carbon ferrochrome prices also remained firm.

Supply side: In January, domestic crude stainless steel production was approximately 3.4065 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.48%. Among them, production of 200 series and 400 series increased significantly, while 300 series production remained relatively stable.

Demand side: The overall situation was characterized by high prices but little trading activity. Although the "two new" policies (referring to new infrastructure and new urbanization) boosted demand for high-end manufacturing (such as new energy vehicles), demand in traditional sectors such as construction and manufactured goods was weak due to the approaching Spring Festival. High prices had also dampened end-users' willingness to purchase.

Inventory side: Changes in social inventory showed a clear divergence between the first and second halves of the month. Inventory continued to decrease in the first half of the month, but due to sluggish sales, inventory began to accumulate in the second half.

In January, stainless steel inventories initially fell before rising. By the end of the month, total stainless steel inventories reached 952,600 tons, an increase of 0.46% compared to the beginning of the month.

Market outlook

In summary: The cost support provided by Indonesia's nickel ore policy remained strong. However, with inventory accumulating after the holiday, if downstream production resumption and order recovery fall short of expectations, prices will face downward pressure. Furthermore, exports are expected to decrease due to the new licensing policy. The stainless steel market in February is expected to continue its high-level volatile trend.

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