Price trend

In January 2026, the domestic epichlorohydrin (ECH) market generally exhibited a "stable first, then rising, with an upward shift in focus" trend. At the beginning of the month, the market remained in a stalemate due to the interplay of expectations of increased supply and bearish sentiment from downstream users, resulting in limited price fluctuations. In the middle and late of the month, the market broke the deadlock under the combined influence of multiple factors, experiencing a counter-trend upward movement. The average price in the East China market rose from 11,925 RMB/ton on January 4th to around 12,600 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a significant increase. According to the monitoring and analysis system of SunSirs, as of January 31st, the SunSirs benchmark price for epichlorohydrin was 12,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.62% compared to the beginning of the month..

Factors affecting price:

Raw Materials: The price of crude glycerin experienced a strong increase in January. As of January 21st, the average price of 99.5% glycerin in East China reached 9,200 RMB/ton, an increase of 550 RMB/ton compared to the end of December 2025, representing a monthly increase of 6.36%. The main reasons for the increase were the scarcity of spot inventory among domestic glycerin manufacturers and tight market supply. Simultaneously, international glycerin prices also rose to over US$1,150/ton, creating a cost support driven by both domestic and international factors. The price of propylene also fluctuated upwards in January. The strong support from rising raw material costs was the core driving force behind the upward trend in the epichlorohydrin market. According to the SunSirs' market analysis system, as of January 30th, the benchmark price of propylene was 6,411.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 12.13% compared to the beginning of the month (5,717.67 RMB/ton).

Supply side: January's supply increase fell short of expectations, and the spot market remained tight. Plant restarts were delayed, operating rates were reduced, and some factories cut production due to environmental regulations. Although some plants resumed production, they primarily focused on fulfilling contract orders, resulting in limited spot market availability. Industry maintenance in January affected 838,000 tons of capacity, resulting in a production loss of approximately 57,100 tons. Despite a slight increase in capacity utilization and monthly output compared to the previous month, the increase was absorbed by contracts and essential demand, failing to alleviate the tight spot market situation. The supply showed characteristics of "nominal recovery but actual shortage," supporting price increases.

Demand side: Downstream demand showed a significant shift this month in line with price trends. In the first ten days of the month, due to bearish market expectations, anticipated increases in raw material supply, and the epoxy resin market being in its off-season, downstream buyers were cautious, mainly focusing on depleting existing inventory, resulting in sluggish market activity. In the latter half of the month, as the Spring Festival approached, downstream companies released their rigid stocking demand to ensure production during the holiday period. At the same time, the strong price increase of the main raw material, glycerin, triggered concerns about rising costs, further stimulating "buy-on-the-rise" restocking sentiment. This concentrated surge in demand, coupled with the continued tightness of spot supply, exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance and directly and powerfully drove up prices.

Market outlook

According to SunSirs' epichlorohydrin analyst, strong glycerin costs were providing price support and upward momentum, leading to a surge in downstream buyers' restocking activity driven by expectations of further price increases. Supported by persistently high costs and a tight supply-demand balance, the price of epichlorohydrin is expected to maintain a stronger trend, being more likely to rise than fall. Further developments will depend on changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

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