In the fourth quarter of 2025, the layer industry will face triple pressures—high supply, weak demand, and deep losses. As supply and demand balance through price adjustments, egg prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to first rise and then fall, with the peak likely occurring in early to mid-January and the trough possibly appearing in February.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, although egg supply in the market has decreased, the supporting momentum remains insufficient. Meanwhile, overall demand remains sluggish, leading to a month-on-month increase in supply-demand pressure in the domestic egg market. As a result, the price centers for eggs and old hens have continued to move downward, and the entire industry has entered a loss-making range.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, with supply pressures easing and demand expected to rise initially before declining, capacity and prices are entering a phase of rebalancing. We anticipate that egg and old-hen prices will likely rise first and then fall.
According to data monitored by Zhuochuang, since the fourth quarter of 2025, the average price of eggs has been 2.96 CNY per 500g, down 5.73% from the third quarter; the average price of old hens has fallen to 4.03 CNY per 500g, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 18.75%. Although costs such as feed have declined during the quarter, reducing the cost per 500g of eggs to 2.95 CNY—a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.64%—egg prices have fallen even more sharply, further worsening breeding profits. The average gross profit per 500g of eggs for the quarter was -0.19 CNY, an increase in loss of 0.10 CNY compared to the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the sluggish prices of main products and prolonged losses experienced by breeding farms throughout the year have prompted chicken farms to adopt a more cautious approach to restocking and increased willingness to cull older birds. As of the end of November, the quarterly average inventory of laying hens stood at approximately 1.356 billion, down 0.51% from the previous quarter. Although production capacity has entered a downward trend, it remains at historically high levels. Coupled with the onset of the off-season for consumption, sales in distribution areas declined by 10.56% compared to the previous quarter, leading to weaker terminal consumption and an intensifying imbalance between supply and demand.
The price trend of old hens is basically the same as that of egg prices, showing a slight rebound after a decline in the fourth quarter. As of December 25, the average price of old hens in the fourth quarter was 4.03 CNY per 500g, down 18.75% from the previous quarter. During the quarter, the price fluctuated from 4.45 CNY per 500g at the beginning of October to 3.78 CNY per 500g on November 21, with a cumulative decline of 15.06%. Since then, prices have slightly rebounded, but overall remain at their lowest level in nearly a decade.
The low prices of eggs and older hens have directly suppressed breeding farms’ profitability. Some farms, in order to lock in profits, have shifted their farming mindset, thereby causing supply to decline and align more closely with market demand.
Monitoring shows that as of December 25, the cost per 500g of eggs in the fourth quarter was 2.95 CNY, down 2.64% from the third quarter, mainly due to the decline in feed ingredient prices. However, the magnitude of the cost reduction has been insufficient to offset the sharp drop in egg prices, continuing to squeeze profit margins for egg producers. The quarterly average gross profit per 500g of eggs fell to -0.19 CNY, a decrease of 0.10 CNY from the third-quarter average. This indicates that egg producers have generally fallen into a state of loss, with the extent of losses widening further compared to the third quarter. Ongoing losses have significantly dampened breeders’ willingness to restock in the fourth quarter, while their enthusiasm to market eggs has increased, thereby curbing the momentum of capacity expansion and gradually pushing the industry into a phase of “capacity reduction.”
Data show that in November, the inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.352 billion, down 0.49% month-on-month and 5.32% year-on-year. The quarterly average decreased by 0.51% month-on-month. Although the inventory has begun to decline, the absolute number remains at a historically high level. Moreover, the proportion of medium- and large-sized eggs in the inventory structure is relatively high, putting significant upward pressure on the supply of large-sized eggs and continuing to weigh on egg prices.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, based on the laying hen breeding cycle and age calculations, the theoretical inventory of laying hens is expected to continue its downward trend. Over the next three months, the theoretical decline in inventory is projected to range from 0.50% to 0.80%. Combined with the widening losses experienced by laying hen farms in the fourth quarter, increased willingness among farm operators to sell their flocks, and a reduction in newly produced eggs, it is anticipated that actual production capacity will also continue its downward trajectory. Meanwhile, demand will be influenced by the Spring Festival: in January, food companies are expected to increase their purchases, and domestic demand within production regions—such as from supermarkets and e-commerce platforms—may rise, providing upward support for egg prices. However, from February to March, the market will enter a period of lower-than-average annual demand. Although supply is set to decrease, the positive impact of reduced supply may not offset the negative impact of declining demand, meaning prices could still experience a further downward trend during this period.
Overall, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the layer chicken industry will face triple pressures: high supply, weak demand, and deep losses. As supply and demand balance out through price adjustments, egg prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to first rise and then fall, with the peak likely occurring in early to mid-January at around 3.30–3.50 CNY per 500g, and the trough possibly appearing in February. The decline from the peak is forecasted to range between 0.50 and 1.00 CNY per 500g. The actual price trend will still require close, real-time monitoring of the pace and extent of older hens’ cessation of egg production, as well as the degree to which demand keeps pace.
