In 2025, amid a complex and volatile macroeconomic landscape, the global commodities market exhibited starkly contrasting extremes.

On one front, precious metals like gold and silver embarked on an epic bull run. Silver surged over 146%, marking its largest annual gain on record, while gold climbed more than 60%. Industrial metals staged a robust rebound, repeatedly hitting historic highs and becoming the dominant upward trend capturing market attention. On the other side, energy markets remained mired in a slump, with prices persistently declining under dual pressures of supply-demand imbalances and weak demand. WTI crude oil fell over 18% for the year, marking its steepest annual drop since 2020.

Looking ahead to 2026, market consensus suggests that the demand fundamentals for metals remain solid, while crude oil is unlikely to see systemic upward momentum.

Precious Metals: Silver Soars, Gold Sets Consecutive Records

In 2025, precious metals emerged as the dominant force in the commodities market, with all major varieties demonstrating robust gains and distinct price trajectories.

Gold surged over 60% for the year, soaring from $2,650 per ounce at the start to above $4,000 per ounce. It surpassed its historical peak over 50 times during the year, briefly touching $4,500 per ounce by year-end. Silver surged even more dramatically, with London spot silver prices posting a cumulative peak gain exceeding 170% during the year. Despite a single-day plunge of over 10% near year-end, it still achieved an annual increase of approximately 150%. Platinum and palladium gained momentum later in the year, becoming market focal points by year-end. Spot platinum rose roughly 128% annually, hitting a record high of $2,478 per ounce. Its December 2025 monthly gain alone marked its strongest performance in 39 years. Spot palladium gained roughly 80% over the year, hitting a new annual high of $1,983 per ounce.

Amid the long-term trend of “de-dollarization,” the impetus for some nations to reduce the share of U.S. Treasuries in their foreign exchange reserves and increase gold holdings persists. The liquidity easing brought by the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has, to some extent, accelerated this process. 2025 witnessed the convergence of these two trends driving precious metal gains.

Looking ahead to 2026, Anne Kay, CEO of the World Gold Council Americas and Head of Global Research, believes the gold market will enter a new phase of dynamic equilibrium shaped by multiple forces. On one hand, elevated geo-economic uncertainties and a potentially persistent weak dollar may sustain structural demand from investors and central banks, supporting gold prices. On the other hand, factors such as the possibility of global economic recovery, shifts in the interest rate cycle, and a potential temporary rebound in the dollar could exert downward pressure on gold prices.

Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading global precious metals company, forecasts that gold, silver, and platinum group metals (PGMs) are likely to trend downward in the first half of 2026. Previous rallies pushed gold and silver to historic highs while propelling PGM prices to multi-year peaks—though these gains were excessive in both magnitude and speed. While short-term price increases remain possible, a correction is anticipated once momentum wanes. Key factors such as sustained central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may underpin prices. Nevertheless, weak industrial demand and recession risks pose significant downward pressure on platinum group metals.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at brokerage KCM Trade, stated: “The demand fundamentals for metals remain solid, whether viewed from the perspective of industrial demand or retail investment demand.”

Nonferrous Metals: Copper Hits New Highs, Lithium Carbonate Makes V-Shaped Recovery

In the nonferrous metals sector for 2025, copper and tin delivered standout performances, while key commodities like aluminum and nickel also demonstrated differentiated strength. As the sector leader, copper demonstrated robust performance throughout the year. LME copper spot prices started around $8,500 per ton at the beginning of the year and surged to a record high of $12,960 per ton by year-end, marking an annual increase of over 42%.

Huang Daoli, founding portfolio manager of the Neuberger Berman Resource Select Stock Fund, noted that copper's strength in 2025 was underpinned by both its industrial and financial attributes. From a financial perspective, gold's strength exerted a certain pull on copper prices. From an industrial standpoint, the global economic wave of the green energy revolution that began after 2020 has steadily increased global demand for electricity. As an excellent electrical conductor, copper's consumption within new energy systems has gradually risen under this trend, thereby receiving demand-side support.

Simultaneously, escalating trade tensions fueled market concerns that U.S. tariff policies could disrupt future copper prices. Beginning in April 2025, a rush to stockpile copper inventories emerged in the U.S. market. Although global copper inventories remained at historical median levels, structural imbalances emerged: U.S. inventories were exceptionally high, while other regions held low stocks. Huang Daoli noted that this spatial imbalance compressed the supply of circulating copper in the market, further driving up prices.

Other industrial metals also demonstrated broad strength. Aluminum prices rose 17% annually, primarily benefiting from optimized recycled aluminum capacity and growing demand for lightweight materials in new energy vehicles. Nickel prices exhibited relatively sharp volatility, with the main Shanghai nickel futures contract opening around 117,000 RMB/ton at year's start and reclaiming the 130,000 RMB/ton threshold by year-end. After multiple rounds of range-bound fluctuations, prices surged rapidly in late Q4, driven by demand for new energy battery materials.

Lithium carbonate exhibited a wide-range oscillation pattern of “first falling then rising.” The main lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Commodity Exchange (GQEX) opened at ¥75,200 per ton in early 2025 and trended downward, breaching the 60,000 RMB/ton threshold in late June 2025. Driven by production cuts at the mining end and surging energy storage demand in the second half, prices rebounded sharply. On December 29, 2025, prices peaked at 134,500 RMB/ton, marking a cumulative increase exceeding 120% from the annual low.

The 2025 lithium carbonate market trajectory was not a simple V-shaped reversal, but rather a recovery pattern that progressed from a prolonged decline seeking a bottom, through a significant rebound, followed by a pullback, and ultimately achieving new annual highs.

Looking ahead to 2026, Citigroup advises clients that under a “bullish scenario” where a weaker dollar and Fed rate cuts further boost copper's appeal, prices could reach $15,000 per tonne, prompting more aggressive investor inflows.

The three macro narratives driving the epic gold price surge in 2025—Fed monetary easing, technology-driven new industrial cycles, and global supply chain restructuring—are precisely the factors poised to propel copper prices in 2026, potentially triggering a historic rally.

Bernstein and Deutsche Bank project that lithium, following a market correction in 2025, will experience a supply-demand reversal in 2026, with the average price of lithium carbonate expected to rebound to $14,000–18,000 per ton.

While consumption outlooks for lithium carbonate remain optimistic, actual realization requires further observation. The overall supply-demand landscape is expected to improve with reduced surplus, projecting lithium carbonate prices to range between RMB 70,000–130,000 per ton in 2026. As industry-wide oversupply narrows, the price center may shift upward.

Energy: Supply Glut Looms, Crude Oil Clouded by Gloom

International oil prices remained weak throughout 2025. WTI crude closed down 0.95% at $57.46 per barrel on December 31, 2025, while Brent crude closed down 0.73% at $61.30 per barrel on the same date. WTI crude fell approximately 20% for the year. It surged to $82.03 per barrel in the first quarter but subsequently resumed its downward trend, dipping to around $55 per barrel. Brent crude declined roughly 18% for the year, marking its largest annual drop since 2020.

The international crude oil market experienced a tumultuous 2025, unfolding in three distinct phases: - Early-year retreat from highs, primarily driven by macroeconomic pressures and shifting trade dynamics; - Mid-year volatility marked by sharp spikes and plunges amid geopolitical conflicts, reaching a secondary peak; - Sustained downward shift in the third quarter with narrowing volatility, culminating in a new yearly low by year-end.

Kotak Securities analyst Kaynat Chainwala stated: “The oil market's oversupply situation will persist through 2026, as robust production from non-OPEC nations like the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will outpace uneven global demand growth.” She added that oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $50 and $70, with potential risks to supply from Venezuela or Russia providing some support.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market widely believes crude oil will lack opportunities for a systemic rally.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that long-cycle projects approved before the pandemic will see concentrated ramp-ups in 2026. Combined with OPEC+'s strategic decision to lift production cuts, the global crude oil market is projected to face a daily surplus of 2 million barrels in 2026. This wave of supply expansion is expected to persist until late 2026. The investment bank forecasts an average Brent crude price of $56 per barrel and WTI crude at $52 per barrel for 2026. Oil prices are expected to bottom out mid-year, begin recovering in the fourth quarter, and gradually rise to around $80 per barrel by the end of 2028—marking a prolonged “bottoming-out and rebound” cycle.

JPMorgan's forecast is similarly pessimistic, projecting 2026 average prices of $58/bbl for Brent and $54/bbl for WTI. Its core logic is that supply growth this year and next will triple demand growth, making it difficult to reverse the market's oversupply pattern.

In 2026, marginal macroeconomic support for crude demand will be limited, with demand growth elasticity continuing to weaken. This makes it difficult to offset the certain incremental supply from non-OPEC producers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is more likely to manage surpluses through flexible production adjustments rather than actively tightening supply, leaving oil prices without a fundamental basis for sustained upward momentum. Concurrently, the countervailing effects of low oil prices on both supply and demand are emerging, creating room for marginal easing of surplus pressures. The agency forecasts Brent crude will trade within a range of $55-$75 per barrel throughout 2026, exhibiting a pattern of lower-first-half, stable-second-half movement. This suggests a cyclical bottoming phase rather than the start of a new downturn.

Notably, the U.S. military airstrike on Venezuela emerged as the first black swan event in the global market for 2026. According to Xinhua News Agency, at approximately 11:40 a.m. Eastern Time on the 3rd (around 12:40 a.m. Beijing Time on the 4th), U.S. President Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, revealing further details about the military operation targeting Venezuela and the capture of President Maduro. Trump stated that major U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela, adding, “We will allow those huge American oil companies—the largest in the world—to invest billions of dollars to repair the severely deteriorated oil infrastructure and begin generating revenue for the country.” Wall Street analysts noted these actions are unlikely to significantly impact energy markets in the short term.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst and Head of Research at A/S Global Risk Management, pointed out that although the scale of U.S. intervention exceeded expectations, markets had already priced in the likelihood that conflict in Venezuela would disrupt its oil exports. As a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. However, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen revealed that Venezuela's current daily production falls below one million barrels, accounting for less than 1% of global oil output.

As the situation evolves, Venezuela's oil production may eventually increase, potentially leading to further declines in oil prices.

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