Chengtong Securities recently released the 2026 investment strategy for the wind, solar, energy storage and power grid industry: The global demand for energy storage installations maintains high growth, and the energy storage configuration for AI computing power centers brings new demand. In 2025, the global energy storage showed an explosive growth trend, with the resonance of large-scale energy storage demand in China, the United States and Europe. Looking ahead to 2026: Similar to power grid investment, the energy storage industry is a post-cycle industry of new energy. The increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation requires energy storage configuration to smooth out fluctuations. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded, the negative feedback impact of industrial chain prices has ended, and the pressure on corporate profitability will be significantly improved.
The following is the abstract of the research report:
Photovoltaics: Substantive progress has been made in supply-side reforms, and short-term demand pressure will not change the diversified growth trend. 2025 is a year for the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry to bottom out. The pressure from supply-demand mismatch has marginally improved, the prices of the industrial chain have stabilized and rebounded, and the extent of corporate performance losses has narrowed. Looking ahead to 2026: On the demand side, the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics will face short-term pressure. The new photovoltaic markets in China, the United States and Europe all have the pressure of year-on-year decline. The growth rate of new markets is relatively high but their proportion is still small. It is expected that the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics will be flat or slightly decline. As the number of global regions with parity in photovoltaic and energy storage continues to increase, the demand for photovoltaic installation in regions other than China, Europe and the United States will start rapidly, and the number of countries with global new installed capacity above GW will continue to increase. Among them, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa will have the highest growth rates, and the pattern of diversified growth will continue to develop. On the supply side, substantive progress has been made in rectifying "involution-style" competition. New industry regulations have raised the threshold for expanding photovoltaic production capacity, the prices of photovoltaic products have basically hit the bottom, and the tail enterprises in the industry have gradually withdrawn. It is expected that the supply-demand mismatch in the industry will gradually improve in 2025. In terms of new technologies, the industrialization of BC battery technology is accelerating, and new silver-reducing technologies will promote a further reduction in non-silicon costs.
Wind power: The high prosperity at the bidding end is transmitted to the installation end, and the industrial chain's overseas expansion continues to advance
In 2025, domestic wind power installations saw significant growth, confirming the high prosperity of domestic wind power bidding volume in 2024. Wind turbine prices stabilized and rebounded, while the proportion of large-megawatt models increased significantly, leading to a structural shortage of some components for large-megawatt wind turbines. Looking ahead to 2026: In terms of onshore wind, the high prosperity on the installation side will be transmitted to the financial statements of listed companies, and it is expected that the profits of listed companies will show significant growth. Although bidding in 2025 has declined somewhat, the growth of export business has provided support, and it is expected that the profit improvement of complete machines and upstream components will continue; In terms of offshore wind, the approval and management mechanism for domestic offshore wind projects has gradually been straightened out. There is a rich reserve of projects with grid-connection potential in 2026, and the growth rate of domestic offshore wind is expected to increase significantly. In the medium and long term, there are abundant resources for domestic deep-sea offshore wind. The development of offshore wind power in state-managed sea areas will open up growth space for the industry. At the same time, high-quality companies are gradually entering overseas markets and will benefit from the global growth of offshore wind. On the supply side, links such as submarine cables are less affected by large-scale deflation, and the competitive pattern is relatively stable, which is expected to fully benefit from the industry growth.
Power grid equipment: The global power grid investment cycle is resonating, and steady growth is expected in the medium to long term
Global power grid investment continues to grow to cope with the impact on the power grid caused by the continuous increase in the proportion of global wind and solar power generation. It is expected that global power grid investment will maintain long-term prosperity. On the power generation side, benefiting from the rapid growth of the wind power and photovoltaic industries, the global investment in the power supply end has grown significantly faster than that in the power grid end in recent years. On the one hand, this has increased the demand for grid-connected boosting equipment; on the other hand, the power grid needs to increase investment to deal with the impact brought by the rising proportion of wind and solar power generation. On the power grid side, the power grid equipment in developed economies is aging, with a high proportion of equipment that has been in use for more than 20 years, resulting in an urgent need for replacement. On the power supply end, the proportion of diversified power consumption terminals such as electric vehicles is increasing, leading to growing volatility and unpredictability. Domestic power grid equipment companies will benefit from the upward shift in the central growth rate of power grid investment, and at the same time, their overseas export business is expected to maintain stable growth.
Energy Storage: The global demand for energy storage installations maintains high growth, and AI computing power centers bring new demand for energy storage. In 2025, the global energy storage showed an explosive growth trend, with the resonance of large-scale energy storage demand in China, the United States and Europe. Looking ahead to 2026: Similar to power grid investment, the energy storage industry is a post-cycle industry of new energy. The increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation requires energy storage to smooth out fluctuations. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded, the negative feedback effect of industrial chain prices has ended, and the pressure on corporate profitability will be significantly improved. On the demand side, the national capacity price policy in China is expected to be introduced, supporting the medium and long-term development of domestic large-scale energy storage. Overseas, large-scale energy storage in Europe has taken over household energy storage to become the main type of energy storage growth, and the construction of computing power centers in the United States has brought certain demand for energy storage installations. We expect the global energy storage installation to reach 417GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 51%.
Risk Warnings:
- Global PV, wind power, and energy storage installations may fall short of expectations. Deployment of photovoltaic (PV), wind power, and energy storage projects is influenced by numerous factors—including local electricity pricing, grid integration capacity, equipment pricing, and government subsidy policies—leading to uncertainty in new installations.
- Supply-side consolidation in the PV and wind sectors may be slower than anticipated. Delays in supply-side adjustments could exert downward pressure on product prices and squeeze corporate profit margins.
- Risks arising from international trade disputes. Export-oriented domestic companies in solar, wind, storage, and grid sectors are vulnerable to shifts in trade policies across different countries.
- Volatility in commodity raw material prices. For some companies, raw materials constitute a significant share of total costs; thus, price fluctuations may adversely affect profitability.
- The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts may fall short of expectations. Interest rates directly impact project financing costs; persistently high rates could dampen demand across the industry.
