Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the issuance of production, usage, and import quotas for ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for 2026. This policy continues and strengthens China's total volume control and generational replacement pathway for the refrigerant industry. Against this backdrop, the long-term market prospects for refrigerant products have a clear foundation of support.
The 2026 quota plan centers on “total volume control and structural optimization.” The phase-out of second-generation refrigerants continues to advance. China's total production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 151,400 metric tons, a reduction of 12,100 metric tons from 2025. Domestic quotas were cut by 6,300 metric tons, accounting for 52% of the total reduction. By product type: - R22 production quota: 146,100 tons (2.02% reduction from 2025), with domestic quota at 77,900 tons (3.60% reduction); - R142b production quota remains unchanged from 2025; - R141b quota is eliminated. Driven by policy, second-generation refrigerants are accelerating their exit from the mainstream market, creating space for third-generation products to replace them.
Regarding third-generation refrigerants, the overall quota remains stable in 2026. Data shows that the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 reaches 797,800 metric tons, an increase of 5,963 metric tons compared to 2025. with domestic quotas totaling 394,100 metric tons, an increase of 4,502 metric tons compared to 2025. By type, quotas for major refrigerants have increased to varying degrees: R32 production quotas are 281,500 metric tons, up 1,171 metric tons from 2025; R134a production quota: 211,500 metric tons, an increase of 3,242 metric tons compared to 2025; R125 production quota: 167,600 metric tons, an increase of 351 metric tons compared to 2025; while quotas for R143a, R152a, R227ea, and other types have been correspondingly reduced.
Notably, the quota adjustment mechanism has become more flexible. Manufacturers may submit applications for quota adjustments between different refrigerant types before April 30 and August 31, 2026, provided they meet two conditions: “no increase in total CO₂ equivalent” and “cumulative adjustment increments not exceeding 30% of the approved quota for the relevant refrigerant.” This change will significantly benefit leading enterprises with diversified product portfolios and high quota bases, helping them optimize production capacity structures and enhance profit resilience.
Additionally, the refrigerant downstream market exhibits dual support from “stable growth in traditional sectors and expansion in emerging fields.” In traditional applications, the air conditioning industry—the largest consumption scenario—has entered an equipment replacement cycle, continuously driving refrigerant substitution demand. New energy vehicle market demand grew 31% year-on-year, steadily boosting automotive air conditioning refrigerant demand. Meanwhile, steady growth in cold chain logistics, refrigerators, and freezers provides effective supplementation.
Emerging sectors are unlocking entirely new growth opportunities. Semiconductor manufacturing's refined demand for specialty refrigerants has driven targeted quota increases for specialized varieties. Amid high-density computing development, surging cooling demands in data centers have created critical need for refrigerants combining insulation properties with low global warming potential. The adoption of liquid cooling technology has driven explosive demand for new fluorinated liquids, continuously expanding the data center liquid cooling market. Expansion into high-end manufacturing and green energy sectors further broadens incremental refrigerant demand, opening long-term growth pathways for the industry.
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