Entering December, the electrolytic manganese market for minor metals has witnessed a powerful price surge. Data shows that electrolytic manganese prices have risen for 13 consecutive trading days, accumulating a nearly 15% increase. The latest average price climbed to CNY17,820 per ton, hitting a three-year high since May 2022.

This surge in electrolytic manganese prices stems not from a single factor but from the convergence of multiple favorable conditions.

First, supply has contracted significantly. As autumn and winter set in, major electrolytic manganese production regions like Guangxi and Guizhou entered intensive pollution control periods. Tightened environmental policies forced some small and medium-sized producers with non-compliant facilities to reduce output or halt operations. Simultaneously, the dry season in southern production hubs has driven up hydropower costs, increasing energy expenses for electrolytic manganese production. Cost-sensitive small and medium-sized smelters have voluntarily reduced output, further tightening market supply.

Second, robust cost support has emerged. Recent manganese ore quotations from major overseas mines to China have consistently risen. For instance, Comilog's Gabon lump ore quoted at $4.5/tonne-degree for December, while CML's Australian lump ore quoted at $0.15/tonne-degree higher month-on-month. Industry calculations indicate that every $0.1 increase in manganese ore prices adds approximately RMB 80 to the tonne cost of electrolytic manganese, with this cost pressure directly impacting product pricing.

Furthermore, improving demand provides solid momentum for price increases. On one hand, steel industry demand remains stable, with year-end restocking needs gradually emerging. As a bellwether, last weekend's new round of spherical electrolytic manganese bids from major steel mills reached 16,600 RMB/ton, surging over 2,000 RMB/ton from the previous round and directly igniting market sentiment. More crucially, the new energy sector is emerging as the core growth engine for the manganese industry.

Traditionally, electrolytic manganese served as a vital alloying agent in steel production. However, rapid advancements in new energy technologies are fundamentally reshaping its value proposition—transforming it from a basic industrial raw material into a key functional material driving next-generation battery innovations.

New battery technologies like lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP), characterized by higher energy density and lower costs, are accelerating commercial adoption. This has triggered explosive growth in demand for high-purity electrolytic manganese. Industry giants are actively expanding: Yunnan Yuning's Phase II project will achieve full production by the end of 2025, reaching an annual LMFP capacity of 160,000 tons. Dangsheng Technology's Phase I 40,000-ton project at its Panzhihua base is already operational, with Phase II expected to be completed by late 2025, boosting total capacity to 120,000 tons.

This robust downstream demand has also driven up lithium manganese oxide prices. Data shows that on December 18, the latest price for high-end lithium manganese oxide reached CNY44,000 per ton, marking an 8.64% cumulative increase since December and a 31.34% year-to-date rise, highlighting the strong pull from the new energy sector on manganese metal.

Regarding this, nonferrous metals industry analysts note that the current surge in electrolytic manganese prices stems from short-term supply-demand imbalances and cost pressures. However, the long-term core driver lies in the structural shift in demand driven by the technological revolution in new energy batteries. Manganese is transitioning from a traditional cyclical minor metal to a growth-oriented key material for new energy applications. Looking ahead, as the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to rise, demand for high-purity manganese sulfate and electrolytic manganese will unlock entirely new growth opportunities. Leading enterprises with resource and technological advantages in this sector are particularly favored.

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