According to South African customs data, South Africa's total manganese ore exports in December 2025 reached approximately 2.5607 million tons, an increase of 14.43% month-on-month and 42.52% year-on-year. Of this, approximately 1.7171 million tons were exported to China, an increase of 13.92% month-on-month and 57.25% year-on-year. Exports to India totaled approximately 406,100 tons, an increase of 4.6% month-on-month and 0.75% year-on-year. From January to December 2025, South Africa's cumulative manganese ore exports reached approximately 27.8592 million tons, an increase of 24.90% year-on-year. From January to December 2025, cumulative exports of South African manganese ore to China reached approximately 18.9173 million tons, an increase of 23.80% year-on-year. From January to December 2025, cumulative exports of South African manganese ore to India reached approximately 4.3962 million tons, an increase of 10.96% year-on-year.

Evaluation and Analysis

South African manganese ore exports increased significantly by 24.90% year-on-year, with exports to China surging by 57.25%, indicating a substantial increase in manganese ore supply. As a key raw material for silicomanganese, ample supply may depress manganese ore prices, reduce silicomanganese production costs, and exert downward pressure on spot prices. Combined with recent data on silicomanganese futures (such as the settlement price of the main contract 2605 at 5,812 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton), prices have generally declined, and changes in open interest indicate increased bearish sentiment in the market. Futures prices are expected to continue their weak trend, with short-term negative factors dominating.

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