According to China Chemical News, international sulfur prices have recently surged to new highs. In December, Qatar Energy raised its sulfur price by $95 per ton to $495, surpassing the 2022 peak. Based on this calculation, sulfur arrival prices at China's Yangtze River ports and northern ports have strengthened simultaneously. Quotations have risen by approximately 22% month-on-month, exceeding the current port price of 4,035 yuan by 223-231 yuan. Significant cost pressures have once again weighed heavily on the monoammonium phosphate market.

On November 30, Qatar Energy Marketing Company raised its December sulfur price to $495 per ton, a substantial $95 increase from November's $400. Compared to the year's opening price of $166, this represents a $329 surge (approximately 198% month-on-month growth), while the year-on-year increase stands at $332 (approximately 204%).

Based on Qatar sulfur pricing, December CIF prices for southern China are projected at $515–517 (for 50,000–55,000-ton vessels) $517–519 (for vessels carrying 30,000–35,000 tons), corresponding to RMB 4,217–4,233 and RMB 4,233–4,250 respectively (a month-on-month increase of RMB 790 and RMB 765 compared to November) (exchange rate: 7.09); China's Yangtze River ports and northern sulfur CIF prices range from RMB 4,258 to 4,266. Cost pressures continue to cascade down the supply chain.

Production costs for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) continue to climb. As of December 1, based on the latest self-pickup price of 4,035 RMB for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports (up 75 RMB from the previous business day), the theoretical MAP production cost exceeds 4,200 RMB (calculated using 28% grade phosphate rock and sulfur). Currently, the ex-factory price for 55% MAP powder in Hubei is 3,650 RMB, resulting in a loss of nearly 600 yuan.

Meanwhile, cost-side support continues to strengthen: Boosted by Qatar's significant increase in December sulfur contract prices, domestic port sulfur spot prices rose steadily on December 1. On the morning of December 1st, terminal buyers in Hubei replenished approximately 20,000 tons of essential inventory at transaction prices ranging from 3,980 to 4,000 yuan. As electronic trading prices climb, the spot market's upward momentum is expected to persist. The robust rise in sulfur prices will further drive up sulfuric acid costs, providing solid cost support for the monoammonium phosphate market.

Moving forward, the monoammonium phosphate market remains underpinned by multiple factors. On one hand, rising costs for sulfur and sulfuric acid continue to increase production pressures for manufacturers, providing a solid floor for MAP prices. On the other hand, enterprises maintain ample backlogs of pending orders. Statistics indicate that by the end of November, sample MAP enterprises held approximately 435,000 tons of pending shipments. Most enterprises can sustain shipments for about one month, while some can cover half a month's shipments, indicating no significant sales pressure at the production end.

Downstream demand shows divergent trends. Compound fertilizer producers primarily purchase MAP based on essential needs, with some having completed phased stockpiling earlier, dampening enthusiasm for chasing current high raw material prices. Compounded by the traditional winter stockpiling season, elevated raw material costs and government-guided price controls have slowed overall procurement pace.

Overall, the ongoing cost pressures are counterbalanced by existing order backlogs. This dynamic may prompt adjustments to MAP pricing strategies or order acceptance policies in December. Furthermore, as cost pressures intensify, some producers may reduce production capacity utilization due to shrinking profit margins. Market supply dynamics and government-guided pricing will require continued monitoring.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 4th, the benchmark price of monoammonium phosphate from SunSirs was 3690.00 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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