The domestic ABS market continued to weaken in November, with most spot prices of various grades lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 8,572.50 RMB/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -6.26% compared to early November.
Supply level: Since November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has fluctuated narrowly. The production line of Zhenjiang Qimei 7 series has been restarted in the early stage; Some production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical are carrying out equipment upgrade tasks; Sinopec's INEOS benzene collar frontline maintenance shutdown. After completing the upgrade task of Zhejiang Petrochemical in the interval, he returned; Jilin Petrochemical has started to increase production; The coexistence of load increase and cost maintenance in Shandong region. The overall performance of the month was mixed, with the industry's overall operating level fluctuating around 71%, and the weekly average production exceeding 143,000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260,000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side's support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: At the end of November, the overall ABS upstream three material market remained stagnant, which had a weak impact on boosting ABS costs. Acrylonitrile has already fallen to a low point at the beginning of the month, and downstream users have followed up with restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their prices. However, due to the stable and fluctuating operating rates in various downstream sectors, coupled with the overall loose supply, the market continues to lack upward momentum and may face downward adjustment pressure.
At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated after falling. The early spot prices fell to a low level, attracting some replenishment orders and driving the market trading atmosphere to improve. However, due to weak downstream terminal demand and bearish supply performance, the overall butadiene market has entered a range of volatile market conditions under the dual negative impact. At present, the upstream synthetic rubber market is also weakening, and there is a lack of positive support within the market. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the future, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.
The styrene market recovered after a decline within the month, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. During this period, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated in the range, which had limited assistance to styrene. On the other hand, styrene is not as good as the off-season demand range. Although there will be an early shutdown and maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou in the second half of the month, which will benefit the supply side from unplanned reductions, downstream production on the consumer side will remain flat. After the short-term favorable supply and demand situation is exhausted, it is expected that the styrene market will continue to face increased resistance in the short term.
On the demand side: Affected by the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and external market turbulence, the consumption of ABS's main downstream electrical shell industry was hindered during the month, and there was no increase in future production. The downstream demand for ABS has not increased significantly, and the factory load is average. The overall stocking logic of terminal enterprises still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods supply is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also at a high level of stalemate, and under the increasing pressure of de stocking in the field, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. The Mid month E-commerce Shopping Festival has limited impact on industry consumption, and the cautious atmosphere in both domestic and foreign markets has resulted in poor industry momentum. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side's support for the ABS market.
The domestic ABS market maintained a downward trend in November. The production load of the aggregation plant remains stable with small fluctuations, while consumer demand remains low and flat. Business analysts believe that the long-term supply-demand imbalance of ABS has plagued the market, dragging down spot prices. At the same time, the upstream three material market is deadlocked, and the mentality of industry players is often negative. In the short term, there is a lack of positive guidance, and it is expected that downward pressure on ABS will still exist.
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