In summary, the domestic ABS market in Q1 2025 was characterized by a fluctuating downward trend, with prices stabilizing before declining, as supply-demand imbalances began to surface. The downward trend persisted into the second quarter as industry-wide capacity expansion officially commenced, significantly increasing supply pressure. Compounded by external tariff policy disruptions, market pessimism intensified. Supply-demand imbalances worsened further in the third quarter, with prices continuing to test lows amid volatility, highlighting the industry's “internal competition” dynamics. Although policy speculation and temporary raw material rebounds provided temporary relief, these factors failed to alter the market's weak trajectory. The fourth quarter witnessed dramatic volatility characterized by “accelerated decline—new lows—brief tailwind,” with structural supply-demand contradictions peaking for the year. Prices breached historical lows, plunging the industry into comprehensive losses. A short-term rebound emerged at year-end amid overlapping positive factors.

In 2025, the international crude oil market will be dominated by supply-demand imbalances and fluctuating downward price trends. with prices following a trajectory of “initial surge followed by sustained pressure” throughout the year. The “dual squeeze” of oversupply and weak demand, compounded by geopolitical disruptions, drove policy shifts from “production cuts to support prices” to “increased production to capture market share” and finally to “price stabilization to prevent collapse.” The global crude oil market balance faces profound restructuring. Taking WTI as an example, its annual high reached $80.04 per barrel, while the low hit $56.74 per barrel—a difference of $23.30 per barrel. By the close of December 31, WTI settled at $57.95 per barrel, down $13.77 per barrel, marking a cumulative decline of 19.20%. Brent settled at $61.92/bbl, down $12.72/bbl, marking a cumulative decline of 17.04%.

Price Trend of Styrene, ABS Raw Material in Zhangjiagang

In 2025, styrene exhibited a fluctuating downward trend under the combined bearish pressure of cost and production factors, with its price center significantly shifting downward compared to 2024. Taking Zhangjiagang styrene as an example, the low-end price reached 6,320 RMB/ton, while the high-end price hit 8,850 RMB/ton. The price gap between the two extremes was 2,530 RMB/ton, widening by 56.17% compared to last year's 1,620 RMB/ton. The year-end price stood at 6,900 RMB/ton, down 1,560 RMB/ton or 18.44% from the year-start level of 8,460 RMB/ton. Concurrently, the 2025 average price of 7,526 RMB/ton represented a 1,695 RMB/ton decline compared to the 2024 average of 9,221 RMB/ton. On the other hand, the styrene industry plans to add approximately 900,000 tons of new capacity in 2026. This includes Guon Chemical's 200,000 tons/year facility expected in the first half of the year and Huajin Aramco's 700,000 tons/year facility anticipated in the second half.

Throughout 2025, the average price of ABS in China's Plastic City market continued its downward trend. Weak cost support coupled with persistent supply-demand imbalances throughout the year forced domestic petrochemical ABS producers to significantly reduce ex-factory prices to counter sluggish market demand. Fortunately, year-end cost recovery and restocking demand slowed the decline in average prices by year-end. Specifically: - LG Yongxing HI-121H: Year-end average price down RMB 3,070/ton compared to year-start, a 25.92% decline - Jilin Petrochemical 0215A: Year-end average price down RMB 3,299/ton compared to year-start, a 29.08% decline Taiwan's Chi Mei PA-757 saw its year-end average price drop by CNY 1,215/ton compared to the beginning of the year, a decrease of 8.66%. Zhejiang Petrochemical's ZA0210 experienced a year-end average price decline of CNY 3,016/ton compared to the beginning of the year, a decrease of 27.03%.

Regarding ABS production capacity and downstream production/sales data for 2025

New capacity additions in 2025 reached 1.925 million tons, pushing total capacity beyond the 11-million-ton threshold. Domestic ABS production in 2025 was recorded at 6.9158 million tons, an increase of 1.4278 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of approximately 26%. Production also saw a significant increase. The pace of capacity expansion will slow considerably in 2026, with only two projects anticipated: a 75,000-ton capacity expansion at Shanghai Gaoqiao and a 300,000-ton facility at Sinopec Tianjin.

In 2025, China's home appliance industry continued its overall positive development. From January to November 2025, national production of household refrigerators reached 99.342 million units, up 1.2% year-on-year; room air conditioners totaled 245.361 million units, increasing by 1.6%; and household washing machines amounted to 113.097 million units, rising by 6.3%.

From January to November 2025, automobile production and sales reached 31.231 million units and 31.127 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 14.907 million units and 14.780 million units respectively, up 31.4% and 31.2% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 47.5% of total new vehicle sales. During the same period, automobile exports totaled 6.343 million units, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million units, surging 102.9% year-on-year.

ABS Import/Export Data:

From January to November 2025, China's cumulative ABS imports totaled 772,500 metric tons, down 150,800 metric tons or 16.33% year-on-year. Domestic self-sufficiency improvements coupled with narrowing structural gaps in high-end demand continued to drive import declines. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative ABS exports reached 336,300 metric tons, an increase of 140,300 metric tons or 71.58% year-on-year. Pressure from overcapacity has driven enterprises to accelerate overseas market expansion, propelling exports to achieve leapfrog growth.

In summary, in 2026, the ABS market will enter a critical operational cycle characterized by “deepening structural adjustments, supply-demand dynamics, and dual policy-technology drivers.” A moderate global economic recovery and favorable domestic macro policies will provide foundational support. However, supply pressures from capacity expansion, uncertainties in raw material price fluctuations, and structural divergence in downstream demand will collectively dominate the market's volatile operating pattern. Overall, the industry will accelerate its transition from scale expansion to quality and efficiency-driven growth. High-end, green, and globalized development will become core strategic directions. Meanwhile, structural contradictions remain difficult to resolve perfectly in the short term, and market profit margins still face compression risks.

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