According to Sina Finance, the overall upward trend in Shanxi coal prices has noticeably moderated, with market sentiment weakening compared to earlier periods. From November 10 to 16, the province's average coal price stood at 955.92 yuan per ton. While this still represents a 2.9% increase from the previous week, different coal types showed divergent trends: thermal coal's upward momentum slowed, coking coal prices fluctuated, and only anthracite maintained steady growth. This presents a new pattern of “overall stabilization amid structural divergence.”

Three Major Coal Types Show Differing Performance; Growth Pace Slows

As a major coal-producing region, even minor fluctuations in Shanxi's coal prices capture market attention. Recent data indicates that the previously surging coal prices have hit the brakes, with distinct trends emerging across different coal types.

The thermal coal market showed the first signs of cooling. Although heating seasons have begun in northern regions and power plant utilization rates have increased, enterprises favor stable long-term contract supplies over high-priced spot coal. Northern port inventories corroborate this trend, with combined stocks at Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, and Jingtang ports reaching 23.1 million tons—a weekly increase of 900,000 tons. Price-wise, Shanxi's thermal coal (5,000–5,500 kcal/kg) averaged ¥686/ton, up 0.4% week-on-week, while some mining areas saw slight price corrections at the pithead.

The coking coal market, however, is caught in a tug-of-war between gains and losses. Profit margins squeezed by earlier coal price hikes have prompted increased blast furnace maintenance at steel mills, with operating rates falling 0.3% week-on-week. This has significantly slowed the pace of coking coal restocking. Shanxi's coking coal prices have diverged accordingly. Linfen's prime coking coal and Jinzhong/Changzhi blending coking coal markets still saw increases of 20–30 yuan/ton, but Lüliang's high-sulfur prime coking coal has retreated 31 yuan/ton from its peak. While the average price of 1/3 coking coal rose 5.4%, the growth rate has significantly moderated compared to last month.

Anthracite emerged as the market's standout performer. Driven by increased chemical industry operations and rising residential heating demand, anthracite prices continued their upward trajectory. Major coal enterprises have universally raised lump coal ex-factory prices by 30–40 yuan/ton. Yangquan's anthracite small-lump prices surged by 90 yuan/ton, while some local coal enterprises in Jincheng saw increases of up to 60 yuan/ton. The average price of anthracite grade 2 rose 1.5% month-on-month, making it the only coal type among the three major varieties to maintain steady growth.

Supply-Demand Dynamics Shape Market Direction; Interprovincial Comparison Reveals Stability

The moderation and divergence in coal price increases stem from structural dynamics at both supply and demand ends. While supply-side fluctuations exist, overall stability persists.

Structural disparities in demand directly drive coal type differentiation. For thermal coal, while heating demand is emerging, power plants rely more on long-term contracts for supply security. Coastal power plants show limited daily consumption growth, and non-power sectors like construction materials and chemicals purchase only as needed, providing limited demand stimulus. Coking coal faces weak downstream demand due to the steel consumption off-season, forcing steel mills and coke plants to control costs and resisting higher-priced coal. In contrast, anthracite benefits from recovering chemical markets like urea, boosting coal-fired plant utilization rates. Combined with residential heating demand, this creates a tight supply-demand balance.

Compared to major coal-producing provinces like Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, Shanxi's coal prices have shown greater overall stability. In Inner Mongolia, the average coal price in October fell 1.0% month-on-month. Specifically, thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000–5500 kcal/kg saw a 2.8% month-on-month decline, while coking coal (1/3 coking coal) prices dropped 1.4% month-on-month. This was primarily driven by ample production capacity, competition from imported coal, and weak demand. Shaanxi's coking coal prices also showed mixed trends, while gas coal prices fell by 12 yuan per ton week-on-week.

In contrast, although Shanxi's upward momentum moderated, its average coal price still rose by 2.9% month-on-month. The particularly strong performance of anthracite highlighted Shanxi's structural advantage in coal variety. Unlike the declines in Shaanxi's gas coal and Inner Mongolia's thermal coal, Shanxi's thermal coal maintained a slight increase, and some coking coal varieties still rose amid market divergence, demonstrating greater resilience.

In the short term, Shanxi's coal prices will continue to follow a pattern of “stable with slight increases and structural divergence.” As heating demand further increases, thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize after declines. Coking coal, influenced by expectations of winter steel stockpiling, may maintain high-level fluctuations. Anthracite coal will continue to benefit from chemical and residential demand, with prices still having room to rise. The interplay between supply and demand will remain the key factor determining future coal price trends.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 27, the benchmark price of coking coal from Business Society was 1621.25 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.53% compared with the beginning of the month (1581.25 RMB/ton).

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