Recently, the data on the electricity consumption of the whole society in October released by the National Energy Administration showed that the monthly increase exceeded 10%, setting a new high for the year.

The electricity consumption data is also known as one of the "barometers" reflecting economic changes. The double-digit growth in electricity consumption has driven the rapid growth of energy demand, including coal power, nuclear power, lithium power and other energy sources. Therefore, the prices of production factors in the upstream raw material of energy - such as thermal coal, natural uranium and lithium carbonate - have also rebounded strongly.

Coal-producing areas see comprehensive price increases

The rapid growth of residential electricity consumption is mainly related to temperature.

With the advent of the northern heating season, the price of thermal coal has shown a continuous increase. At present, the price of thermal coal in the port is maintained at about 830 yuan/ton, but the price in the main coal-producing areas of the country continues to increase on a weekly basis.

According to the data from the Coal Resources Network, as of November 21st, the market price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 832 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, although the prices in the main coal-producing areas still maintained an increase. Among them, the price in the Datong area of Shanxi Province was reported at 690 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the price in the Yulin area of Shaanxi Province, the Q5800 index, was reported at 668 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the price in the Ordos area of Inner Mongolia Province was reported at 621 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous week.

The company's recent investor relations activity record shows that it has analyzed the recent market and price trends of the thermal coal market, and believes that the thermal coal market will show a high-level operation and wide fluctuation in November due to the combined impact of factors such as supply tightening, cost increase, and the expectation of the peak season. The spot price of thermal coal at the port is expected to fluctuate between 800 yuan and 860 yuan per ton.

"The price is balanced in the short term, but there is still a lot of upward pressure in the medium and long term," said a senior coal trader in Beijing to Shenzhen Securities Times. In the current market, the expectation of tight coal resources available for circulation has led to a strong demand for electricity and chemical industry. Once the cold weather exceeds expectations, the daily consumption of power plants will soar, and the demand for market coal will be released, which may push up coal prices and impact the 900 yuan/ton.

It is worth noting that the current winter coal transportation has entered the peak period. The Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway is the main channel for the eastward transportation of coal in China. Recently, coal transportation has been at a high level, with a daily transportation volume of more than 1.2 million tons. In terms of import and export, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October, China imported 31.1439 million tons of thermal coal (non-coking coal), down 14.2% year-on-year and down 11.2% month-on-month; in the same month, the national coal exports were 3.6 million tons, down 32.3% year-on-year and down 50.68% month-on-month.

Huafu Securities analyst Tang Yue believes that the current era is experiencing a major transformation in energy. With the policy orientation of "establishing before breaking" and the demand for energy security, coal may still be in a golden age. Coal supply elasticity is limited, and its position as the main energy source is difficult to change in the short term. The weak macroeconomy has temporarily affected coal demand, but the rigid supply and rising costs have effectively supported coal prices, which are still expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern.

Strong demand for nuclear power raw materials

While traditional energy prices continue to rise, the construction of new energy sources is also "keeping pace", and the development of the nuclear power industry is even faster.

Since the restart of nuclear power in 2019, the development of nuclear power in China has accelerated, with more than 10 units approved each year in the past three years, reaching 11 units in 2024, the highest in history. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has approved the construction of 46 new nuclear power units, adding 54.5 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with both the installed capacity and annual power generation increasing by about 30%.

On November 22nd, the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power base, the No. 2 unit of China National Nuclear Corporation's Fujian Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Plant, successfully connected to the grid for the first time, starting to supply power to the power grid, marking that the unit has the ability to generate electricity and taking a key step towards the goal of commercial operation. Relevant statistical data show that from January to September 2025, the completed investment in domestic thermal power generation was 126.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and the completed investment in nuclear power generation was 99.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. Obviously, under the current background of energy self-sufficiency and controllability, and accelerating the planning and construction of a new energy system, the construction demand for coal-fired and nuclear power units is also strong.

In terms of upstream raw materials for nuclear power, the price of uranium has also been slowly rising. The "CNEA International Natural Uranium Price Forecast Index", recently released by the China Nuclear Energy Association, shows that the supply and demand pattern of the natural uranium market in the medium and long term has been further strengthened, and it is expected that the long-term price will still maintain a slow upward trend, while the spot price is fluctuating upward.

At present, the spot price quotation for uranium is $77 per pound.

The energy storage industry continues to be highly prosperous.

In terms of energy storage, lithium batteries, energy storage, and power grid equipment have benefited from the surge in demand both domestically and internationally, gradually becoming the focus of the market. Research institutions generally believe that domestic and foreign energy storage demands are experiencing a resonant moment, the energy storage industry is expected to maintain a high growth momentum, and resource-rich companies may become the new main direction.

According to the High-tech Industry Research Institute (GGII), as of August this year, China's lithium battery industry chain has signed 183 new projects and has started construction to expand production, with a total investment of about 400 billion yuan. These large orders and expansion projects have directly led to a wave of price increases in upstream lithium battery materials.

Li Liangbin, chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, predicted that the demand for lithium carbonate will increase by 30% in 2026, reaching 19 million tons, while the supply capacity should increase by about 250,000 tons after assessment, and the supply and demand will be basically balanced, and there is still room for lithium carbonate prices to rise. If the demand growth rate exceeds 30% next year, or even reaches 40%, the supply will not be balanced in the short term, and the price may break through the 150,000 yuan/ton, or even 200,000 yuan/ton.

China Securities Building pointed out in its latest research report that the strong demand at the downstream has led to a monthly shortage of lithium carbonate and a decline in inventory. According to Mysteel data, the monthly supply of lithium carbonate in November was about 115,000 tons, the demand was 128,000 tons, and the shortage was about 13,000 tons, and the market continues to decline. At the same time, the consumption in the off-season is not off-season, and the order support can continue until next year. Currently, the contradiction between the supply and demand of lithium carbonate has shifted from supply pressure to consumption-driven. In the long term, with the continuous growth of energy storage demand, the entire lithium battery industry chain may welcome a round of price increases, and the supply and demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate are also greatly improved.

Lithium carbonate, one of the important upstream raw materials for the energy storage industry, saw a sharp rebound in November. The main contract of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange saw a three-day surge, breaking through the 100,000 yuan per ton mark during the trading session. Despite the impact of increased handling fees and tightened trading limits, some funds withdrew, but the price remains at a near-one-year high. In line with the futures market, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has also shown the strongest performance in nearly a year, rising nearly 60% from the year's low point, and the quotation has returned to the top of the range since July 2024.

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