Recently, the International Energy Agency released the "World Energy Outlook 2025" report, emphasizing that the global demand for energy services, especially electricity, will continue to grow in the coming decades. The demand for energy in transportation, heating, cooling, lighting, and other household and industrial uses will rise rapidly, while the energy supply required for data and artificial intelligence-related services will also increase significantly.

Electricity is the lifeblood of contemporary industry and the digital economy. Currently, electricity accounts for only 20% of global terminal energy consumption, but it underpins more than 40% of the global economic output. It is also the core energy guarantee for most households. In the foreseeable future, the growth rate of global electricity demand will far exceed the growth rate of total energy consumption. This is already clearly reflected in the current global energy investment, where investment in power supply and terminal electrification has accounted for 50% of the total global energy investment.

The IEA’s analysis has consistently highlighted the growing importance of electricity in the global economy over the years. Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, pointed out that unlike the trend of the past decade, the growth in electricity consumption is no longer confined to emerging and developing economies. The rapid growth in electricity demand from data centers and artificial intelligence has also significantly boosted electricity use in the developed economies. Global data center investment is expected to reach $580 billion by 2025, already exceeding the $540 billion in global oil supply investment, reflecting profound changes in the global economic landscape.

The report points out that the core of energy security in the electric power era lies in the advancement of grid construction, energy storage facilities, and other flexible resources in the power system, but the development of these aspects in most countries still lags behind. Since 2015, global power generation investment has surged by nearly 70%, but the annual growth rate of grid investment has not even reached half of that.

The report shows that renewable energy, led by photovoltaics, is leading the growth of other major energy sources, and that 80% of the global energy consumption growth to 2035 will occur in high-quality solar irradiance areas. At the same time, the global nuclear power industry is accelerating its recovery, and after more than 20 years of stagnation, it is predicted that global nuclear power installed capacity will achieve at least a third growth by 2035. At the same time, investment in new designs such as traditional large nuclear power plants and small modular reactors will maintain a dual-line growth.

The report predicts that in the short term, global oil and gas supplies will be relatively sufficient, and oil prices will stabilize in the range of $60 to $65 per barrel. With the gradual commissioning of new liquefied natural gas export projects, the supply and demand contradiction in the natural gas market has also shown a easing trend. However, the recent balance of the international oil and gas market still faces the test of geopolitical risks. If the global energy transition policy slows down or oil and gas prices fall to stimulate demand growth, the existing buffer space may quickly narrow.

The report points out that the final investment decisions for new global liquefied natural gas projects will increase in 2025, and it is expected that by 2030, new liquefied natural gas export facilities with an annual capacity of about 300 billion cubic meters will come into operation, increasing the global liquefied natural gas supply by 50%. Although the demand for natural gas is expected to grow, such a large increase in liquefied natural gas capacity may lead to a surplus in the market.

Notably, the report predicts that oil and gas will continue to play a significant role in the evolving energy landscape. Under current policy conditions, demand for oil and gas is expected to peak not before 2050, with oil still being the dominant fuel. As demand for oil and gas in developed economies slows down, emerging economies, represented by India and Southeast Asia, along with developing countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, will contribute to most of the global incremental demand for oil and gas in the coming years, potentially reshaping the international energy market dynamics.

The report points out that, in addition to traditional energy security risks such as oil and gas supply, the vulnerability in other key mineral resources sectors is particularly significant with the transformation of the international energy market and the turmoil of the international political pattern. In this regard, Birol said that looking back at the history of energy development in recent decades, no period has faced such a variety of fuel and technology energy security pressures as now.

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