Several analysts said the strong performance of lithium carbonate futures in this round is mainly due to the adjustment of supply and demand fundamentals, the market has a strong expectation for future demand, and the demand side maintains a strong position with the support of the peak season, coupled with the continuous inflow of funds, the futures price has been rising.

With significant changes in the fundamental supply and demand, the futures price of lithium carbonate has welcomed a strong upward trend. On November 20th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, 2601, fluctuated around the 100,000 RMB/ton level throughout the day, with a large difference between bulls and bears. As of the end of the session, the 2601 contract closed at 98,980 RMB/ton, failing to break through the important psychological level, with nearly 16 million contracts traded and nearly 4.8 million contracts held.

Several analysts told reporters that the current strong performance of the lithium carbonate futures is mainly due to the adjustment of the supply and demand fundamentals, the market has a strong expectation for future demand, and the demand side is supported by the peak season and remains strong, coupled with the continuous inflow of funds, the futures price has been rising. In the short term, the main contract may maintain a high-level operation, but investors need to be careful of the risk of a correction.

On November 20th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, 2601, broke through the 100,000 RMB/ton barrier at the beginning of the day, reaching a maximum of 102,500 RMB/ton, creating a new high since June 2024. The contract maintained a high plate throughout the day, but near the end of the day, the contract declined, ultimately losing the 100,000 RMB/ton barrier.

Wang Ying, a researcher at the Investment Consulting Department of Zhongyan Futures, told reporters that the logic behind the rise in lithium carbonate futures prices mainly revolves around strong supply and demand fundamentals, fund-driven factors, and boosted market sentiment. The main industry's delayed resumption of production has led to a sustained increase in domestic lithium carbonate prices. Additionally, downstream enterprises expect a 30% to 40% growth in demand by 2026, and the price中枢 is expected to reach the range of 150,000 RMB to 200,000 RMB per ton, enhancing market optimism. Coupled with the increased optimism in consumption expectations and the rapid increase in futures market positions, this has further pushed up the futures price.

Zhao Xiaoxiao, head of the Anlai Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the core driving force behind the recent strength in lithium carbonate futures prices is the unexpected demand, which has leaped from a "marginal variable" to a "core variable" affecting the supply and demand pattern. "In the first half of this year, orders for overseas energy storage from Chinese companies surged year-on-year, domestic policies have shifted to promote energy storage as an independent market entity, and the rapid iteration of cell technology has reduced costs, the overall downstream lithium industry has shown a good development trend. In addition, lithium carbonate inventories have now dropped to the lowest level in three years, which provides strong support for price formation," Zhao said.

In the view of analysts, the current lithium carbonate futures price is clearly in a state of confrontation between bulls and bears, and may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term.

"Since this week, the total open interest of lithium carbonate futures has been continuously rising, exceeding 1.1 million lots, reaching a new high since the listing. At the same time, the amount of funds flowing in has also been expanding, currently approaching 24 billion RMB, and the activity of funds has significantly increased," said Wang Ying. In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but traders need to be cautious of the risk of short-term capital speculation. It is recommended that traders closely monitor inventory changes, the progress of mine resumption, and downstream order data.

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