Price trend:

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, domestic lithium carbonate prices recently surged, reaching a new high for the year. As of November 20th, the SunSirs benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 95,266 RMB/ton, up 11.16% week-on-week and 26.99% month-on-month. The SunSirs benchmark price for domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 93,433 RMB/ton, up 11.32% week-on-week and 27.7% month-on-month.

Ganfeng Lithium made an optimistic forecast; PriceSeek on SunSirs highlighted price increases

On the 16th, at the 10th International Summit on Power Battery Applications, Li Liangbin, Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, predicted that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons. Meanwhile, supply capacity, after assessment, should increase by about 250,000 tons, resulting in a basic balance between supply and demand, and room for lithium carbonate prices to rise. If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, or even reaches 40%, supply will be unable to balance in the short term, and prices may exceed 150,000 RMB/ton or even 200,000 RMB/ton.On the following day (17th), PriceSeek, a business information platform, issued a key warning: A +2 rating was predicted due to the large magnitude of the forecast and the high risk of supply-demand imbalance, which could trigger a price surge. Lithium carbonate futures hit their daily limit up that day, and spot prices followed suit, rising 4.16%. Details link: https://www.100ppi.com/news/detail-20251117-4970856.html

The price increase was not unfounded; strong demand provided solid support

Data shows that from January to October, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. During the same period, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries reached 578 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%. Regarding energy storage batteries, affected by global policy fluctuations and technological iterations, the industry even experienced a period of severe shortages of batteries. From January to October, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 94.81 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 46.31%; Chinese companies received new overseas orders for energy storage reaching 267 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 145.6%, far exceeding the total for the previous year.

Rising raw material prices triggered a surge in stock market stocks, with many hitting their daily limit

The booming futures market quickly spilled over into the stock market. According to data from SunSirs' stock trading platform, the lithium battery sector saw a broad-based surge: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Shares, Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium all hit their daily limit. Details link: https://www.100ppi.com/product/?f=gpt

Market Forecast:

According to analysts at SunSirs, in the short term, rising demand and strong market sentiment are supporting higher prices for lithium carbonate. In the long term, rising prices may stimulate the resumption and commissioning of production, putting pressure on the supply side. Specific developments will depend on changes in market supply and demand.

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