Price trend:
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from November 3rd to 7th, the domestic BDO price adjusted to 7,442 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.31% month-on-month and 15.83% year-on-year. With both plant restarts and reduced operating rates remaining, capacity utilization remained low. Suppliers continued to maintain a stable market sentiment, while downstream industries were experiencing losses and were maintaining contract follow-up, with weak spot purchasing intentions. Supply and demand negotiations were underway, resulting in a narrow consolidation in the domestic BDO market.
Analysis review
On the supply side, while one unit at Inner Mongolia Sanwei and the first phase of Xinyue had restarted, one unit at Great Wall Energy remained in flux replacement mode, and the units at Inner Mongolia Huaheng and Meike were operating at reduced capacity. The industry's capacity utilization rate remained low at around 50%, supporting suppliers' stable market sentiment. The BDO supply side is expected to provide positive factors for the market.
Statistics on the operation of some production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Extended Oil |
Due to insufficient natural gas supply, the load was reduced to around 50-60% |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases of the plant were slightly reduced load operation |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The agent was changed on October 9, and a set of devices was restarted on October 24, and a set of devices was restarted on November 3; The load was 60-70% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
Stable operation |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The maintenance began on October 10 and wa resumed on November 7 |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
a set of devices was stable in operation; A set of devices was replaced on October 30 and is expected to resume on November 10 |
On the cost side, for raw material calcium carbide: increased furnace operation significantly increased supply, accelerating the decline in domestic calcium carbide prices. For raw material methanol: the domestic methanol market was mainly consolidating; as of 10:00 AM on November 7th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang was 2,097 RMB/ton. With both raw material calcium carbide and methanol prices weak, the cost of BDO was negative for the market.
On the demand side, except for a slight decline in PBT operating rates, other downstream industries maintained stable operations, with no significant change in demand. However, some downstream products, such as PTMEG, GBL, NMP, and PU slurries, experienced price declined due to their own supply and demand factors, further compressing profit margins. Therefore, under cost pressure, downstream industries followed through on contract orders, showing weak willingness to purchase spot goods and resisting high prices, thus suppressing raw material prices. BDO demand was also negatively impacted by these factors.
Market Forecast:
With the restart of plants by companies like Guotai Xinhua and Great Wall Energy, supply had increased significantly, exacerbating the wait-and-see attitude in the market. Downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT had increased their operating rates, leading to increased raw material consumption. However, many downstream industries were facing cost pressures, resulting in strong bargaining power. With both supply and demand increasing, the supply-demand game continued. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic BDO market is expected to be stagnant and consolidated.
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