Isooctanol prices fluctuated and declined in October

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 31, the price of isooctanol was 5,950 RMB/ton, a decline from 6,666.67 RMB/ton on October 1, marking the lowest price since May 2020. Isooctanol prices had fallen for four consecutive months, with a 10.75% drop in October, the largest decline this year.

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the weekly candlestick chart of isooctanol showed that the price of isooctanol had been declining continuously since August, with the price drop intensifying in October. In October, isooctanol manufacturers underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of isooctanol equipment, which fell to less than 90%, leading to a decrease in isooctanol supply. Furthermore, the price of propylene fell, reducing the cost of isooctanol. Additionally, the price of plasticizers fell, resulting in weak demand for isooctanol. The combination of lower costs and weak supply and demand led to a significant drop in isooctanol prices.

The cost of raw material propylene decreased

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 31st, the price of propylene was 6,058.25 RMB/ton, a decline from 6,543.25 RMB/ton on October 1st. Propylene prices fell sharply in October, hitting a new low for the year; the October price drop was 7.64%, the largest monthly decline this year. The decline in raw material propylene prices reduced isooctanol costs, increasing downward pressure on isooctanol prices.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and declined

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 31, the price of DOP was 7,009.16 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.86% compared to the price of 7,367.50 RMB/ton on October 1. The price of DOP fluctuated downwards in October, with DOP enterprises operating at less than 60% capacity, resulting in a decrease in operating rates, DOP production, and reduced demand support for isooctanol, putting significant downward pressure on isooctanol prices.

Market Forecast:

According to analysts at SunSirs, isooctanol prices were facing increasing downward pressure due to falling costs, including propylene and raw material prices. On the supply side, isooctanol producers were operating at less than 90% capacity, leading to a decrease in supply. On the demand side, DOP prices were fluctuating downwards, and DOP production was declining, further reducing demand support for isooctanol. In summary, the combination of declining costs and weak supply and demand was increasing downward pressure on isooctanol prices, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend.

Looking ahead, with propylene prices falling and insufficient cost support for isooctanol, isooctanol production was declining while DOP production was rebounding, resulting in reduced isooctanol supply and increased demand. In addition, with isooctanol prices approaching historical lows, the downside potential for isooctanol is limited and the willingness to rise is strong. It is expected that isooctanol prices will stop falling and consolidate in the near future.

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