Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 30, the average domestic hot rolled coil and sheet market price was 3,390 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.673%. The average domestic cold rolled coil and sheet market price was 4,012.5 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.312%. The price difference between hot and cold rolled products was around 622 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Policy supported and domestic demand recovered

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association (CMA) on major excavator manufacturers, sales of various excavators totaled 16,523 units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Of these, 7,685 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, while exports totaled 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. From January to August 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, of which 80,628 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and 73,553 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the continued effectiveness of the trade-in policy, the accelerated release of domestic consumption vitality, coupled with the intensive launch of new products by companies and the vigorous promotional activities at auto shows across the country, have contributed to the continued positive momentum of the passenger car market. According to authoritative data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), China's passenger car market continued its growth momentum in August 2025, with retail sales reaching 2.019 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.5%. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 55.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's air conditioner production reached 16.819 million units in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. From January to August, cumulative production reached 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. In August, China produced 9.453 million refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. From January to August, cumulative production reached 70.189 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. In August, China produced 10.132 million washing machines, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. From January to August, cumulative production reached 78.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. In August, China produced 18.016 million color TVs, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. From January to August, cumulative production reached 125.821 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

Hot rolled strip prices showed a divergent trend

Hot rolled strip prices in the Handan and Xingtai regions showed divergent trends in September 2025. Handan saw significant price fluctuations, initially declining and then rising, while Xingtai remained generally stable, with no significant change. Market activity was generally average, influenced by inventory, demand, and macroeconomic factors. The divergence in price performance stemmed primarily from differences in supply structure and regional supply-demand balance.

As of September 22nd, the Handan hot rolled coil and sheet market was priced at 3,370 RMB/ton for 4.75mm standard coil, 3,360 RMB/ton for standard coil in Shexian County, 3,420 RMB/ton for 3.0mm coil, 3,470 RMB/ton for manganese coil, and 3,520 RMB/ton for 1,800-wide coil. The mainstream cold rolled base material market in Handan was priced at 3,350-3,370 RMB/ton for 3.0*1010, with limited supply. The mainstream strip steel market in Handan was priced at 3,320-3,340 RMB/ton for 3.5*480-580 mm. Prices for hot rolled coil and sheet, cold rolled base material, and hot rolled strip in Handan remained unchanged month-over-month.

The trade environment was complex, with international competition and policy disruptions exerting a double squeeze

Supply Side

Mysteel reports that the operating rate of key hot rolled strip steel producers nationwide was 77.00% last week, up 2.00 percentage points from the previous week and 4.00 percentage points from the previous month. Capacity utilization was 78.10%, up 4.46 percentage points from the previous week and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. Actual output at steel mills last week was 2.3095 million tons, up 131,900 tons from the previous week and 48,200 tons from the previous month. On-site inventory at steel mills was 372,400 tons, up 3,800 tons from the previous week and 23,200 tons from the previous month.

Market outlook

On the supply side, steel demand was in the transition period between peak and off-season. Although steel profits had been compressed, steel mills were generally reluctant to reduce production, and the room for output reduction was limited. For rebar, short-term supply is expected to fluctuate around 2.2 million tons/week. Inventory levels continued to increase this month, and total inventory had already exceeded the same period last year. Destocking pressure is expected to be relatively strong in the future, and inventories will remain relatively high year-on-year. On the supply side, steel mills may reduce production slightly more in September than in August, with an average daily decrease of 3,000 tons. On the demand side, domestic manufacturing orders continuef to increase at normal levels, and peak season demand remainrf resilient. Demand for steel products is expected to remain differentiated next month. With the impending implementation of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan, ferrous metal prices are expected to fluctuate more, and will remain in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term.

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