Price trend

Hot rolled sheet and coil prices fell slightly last week. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 26, the average domestic hot rolled sheet and coil market price was 3,433.33 RMB/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.387%. The average domestic cold rolled sheet market price was 4,022.5 RMB/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.247%.

Factors affecting price changes:

Fundamentals

According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, the social inventory of hot rolled steel last week was 298.8 tons, up 21,100 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.2419 million tons, down 23,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of cold rolled steel this week was 1.3968 million tons, up 4,500 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output was 850,600 tons, up 15,400 tons from the previous week.

Last week, inventories of similar-caliber steel billets at major warehouses and ports in Tangshan totaled 1.2655 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,600 tons. During the survey period, most downstream steel mills implemented production controls due to environmental protection measures, weakening demand for billets.

Cost side

Last week, the supply of the five major steel varieties was 8.6493 million tons, a weekly increase of 94,700 tons, an increase of 1.1%; the total inventory was 15.1061 million tons, a weekly decrease of 91,300 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; the apparent consumption was 8.7406 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8%.

Steel prices fluctuated in September. Supply-demand imbalances, weakening cost support, and policy expectations drove market fluctuations, with prices fluctuating within a range. The overall average price remained relatively unchanged compared to the previous month, but price trends diverged across product categories, with flat steel products showing relative strength and building materials facing significant pressure. As of September 19th, the national average price of rebar fell by 30 RMB/ton, while that of wire rod decreased by 19 RMB/ton. The national average price of hot rolled steel increased by 16 RMB/ton, that of cold rolled steel increased by 7 RMB/ton, and that of mild steel plate decreased by 4 RMB/ton. Steel prices faced downward pressure in the first half of September, but gradually rebounded in the second half of the month due to expectations of a peak season and the influence of macroeconomic policies, forming a "V-shaped" pattern of fluctuations. However, once the favorable policy effects are exhausted, the market will return to fundamentals and continue to face pressure.

Regarding external demand, data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 9.51 million tons of steel in August 2025, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports reached 77.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. Steel exports peaked in May, reaching a total of 10.578 million tons. The decline in steel export orders was primarily due to trade barriers and tariff policies resulting from anti-dumping measures.

Market outlook

In late September, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, some end-use projects may accelerate construction progress, driving a short-term recovery in demand, but the increase was limited. On the supply side, steel mills were insufficiently reducing production, and inventory reduction still depended on an unexpected increase in demand. However, downstream purchasing interest was temporarily sluggish, and social inventories of the five major steel grades continued to accumulate for ten weeks. Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure. The fourth quarter was squeezed by the double pressure of lower-than-expected demand recovery and rebound in raw material costs.

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