In July 2025, a fire at a substation at German chemical giant Covestro's Dormagen plant disrupted chlorine supply, forcing the shutdown of its 300,000-ton-per-year TDI production capacity.

On July 27, a chlorine leak at Mitsui Chemicals' Omuta plant in Japan triggered an emergency shutdown of its TDI unit. Capacity reductions at these key facilities sent shockwaves through the global TDI market, profoundly impacting supply-demand dynamics and the industrial chain.

The successive shutdowns of overseas plants created a supply gap.

By the end of August 2025, global TDI total capacity stood at 3.777 million tons/year. Europe's combined TDI capacity reached 550,000 tons/year, accounting for 16% of global capacity, with Covestro's German plant contributing 300,000 tons/year. As a key supplier to the European market, the shutdown of Covestro's German plant leaves only the 250,000-ton-per-year capacity at Wanhua BC's Hungarian facility operational in Europe, severely crippling the region's supply capabilities.

Meanwhile, the reduction of Mitsui Chemicals' Omuta plant capacity in Japan from 120,000 tons per year to 50,000 tons per year has also impacted the supply structure in Asia to some extent.

Following Covestro's shutdown announcement, TDI prices surged rapidly. Domestic Chinese TDI prices climbed from 11,500 RMB/ton in early July to 15,500 RMB/ton by July 31, marking a 29% month-on-month increase from June. After oscillating downward since late 2022—reaching a low near 10,000 RMB/ton—prices have rebounded over 40% this year amid intensifying supply constraints. Overseas, weak overall demand amid economic sluggishness was compounded by supply tightening following the Covestro incident. European TDI prices saw a modest increase, climbing from €1,900/ton in early July to around €2,000/ton. Other Asian markets also experienced price hikes due to constrained supply.

The prolonged shutdown (or reduced output) of two overseas TDI plants has triggered soaring prices globally, prompting TDI producers and traders to adopt a cautious selling stance. This has created a tight supply situation for TDI worldwide. Downstream industries, seeking to ensure stable raw material supply, have been forced to accept higher purchase prices.

In recent years, China's TDI production capacity has steadily increased, making it the region with the highest concentration of global TDI capacity. As early as May this year, China's TDI exports surged significantly to 51,600 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 98.4%, setting a new monthly record. In June, China's TDI exports remained strong at 48,000 metric tons, an 81.6% year-on-year increase. The growth in export orders reflects the increasingly vital role of Chinese enterprises in the global supply chain.

In August 2025, China exported 49,533 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI), marking a 22.66% increase from the previous month and a 33.85% rise year-on-year. From January to August 2025, China's TDI exports totaled 357,227 tons, up 67.78% compared to the same period last year.

The TDI market is expected to continue fluctuating at elevated levels. The duration of the force majeure remains uncertain, and the global TDI shortage cannot be resolved in the short term.

TDI prices are projected to hover around 13,000-14,000 RMB per ton in the fourth quarter.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on October 9, the benchmark price of TDI on SunSirs was 13,800.00 RMB/ton, the same as at the beginning of this month.

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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