Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic East China TDI market remained weak in September, with prices continuing to decline. The average TDI price at the beginning of the month was 14,700 RMB/ton, and on September 29th, it was 13,800 RMB/ton, a monthly decrease of 6.12% and a year-on-year increase of 5.75%.

Analysis review

September's TDI market remained subdued despite peak season activity, maintaining a weak trend. Trading activity was relatively quiet at the beginning of the month, with relatively stable supply. Downstream purchased mainly on demand and on dips. Intermediary quotes followed market trends, and with a lack of positive news to boost the market, TDI transaction volume continued to decline, driven by buyer-led activity. In mid-month, positive news emerged from suppliers, with major northern manufacturers offering 20% off, leading to tight supply. Major Shanghai manufacturers raised their suggested retail prices to 14,200 RMB/ton, posing a challenge to inventory. This news boosted market confidence, prompting intermediary quote increases. Downstream was driven by strong demand, leading to low market activity and sluggish trading as prices rose. The market stabilized by the end of the month.

Supply side: Yantai Wanhua's TDI unit began to shut down for maintenance on August 19, and the maintenance is expected to last about 40 days.

Cost: The toluene market experienced a volatile decline in September 2025. From September 1st to 26th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,420 RMB/ton to 5,370 RMB/ton, a 0.92% decrease over the period. Demand in the downstream chemical and oil blending industries remained stable, with purchases primarily based on essential needs. The market trend remained stable, with downstream market participation remaining subdued. A lack of clear market news led to minimal market fluctuations.

Market outlook

TDI data analysts of SunSirs believe that as of September 29, the TDI market decline was slowing down. As the month-end approaching, it should pay close attention to the settlement prices of major manufacturers. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak, and the TDI market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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