Entering late September 2025, the domestic melamine market did not usher in the expected "Golden September" market, but instead continued the previous weak and falling pattern. The overall market atmosphere was bearish and trading activity was low.

Market Overview:

Price: As of September 23rd, the benchmark price of melamine on SunSirs was 5,512.50 RMB/ton, down 2.65% from the price of 5,662.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. Some factories, struggling to secure shipments, were offering negotiable prices for actual orders, and the price center was shifting downward.

Trading sentiment: Downstream and trading partners showed little enthusiasm for purchasing, generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, preferring to buy when prices rise and not when they fall. New orders were mostly small and sporadic, failing to generate effective support. Trading activity on the market was sluggish, demonstrating a typical "priceless" market.

On the supply side:

Despite some temporary shutdowns or maintenance at individual plants, the overall operating rate of melamine plants nationwide remained at a relatively high level of 65% to 70%. This indicated that the market spot supply was sufficient.

As shipments slowed significantly compared to production, inventory levels at manufacturers climbed, putting some manufacturers under pressure. To alleviate inventory and capital pressures, manufacturers were forced to reduce prices or offer discounts to attract orders, exacerbating price declines.

Demand Side:

Melamine's primary consumption areas were board materials, coatings, and molding powder. The board material industry was highly correlated with the real estate market. The real estate industry was temporarily undergoing a period of adjustment, with limited impact on new home renovation and furniture consumption. This led to continued weak demand for melamine from board material manufacturers.

Economic growth in overseas markets had slowed down, and import demand for Chinese products containing melamine (such as laminates, tableware, etc.) had not seen any significant improvement, and the export market's diversion effect on domestic demand had weakened.

Faced with a continuously falling market, downstream customers generally believed that prices had not yet bottomed out, so their purchasing strategies were extremely cautious, focusing mainly on consuming existing inventory and waiting for clearer bottom signals, which made the demand side even worse.

Cost Side:

Urea Market Stagnation: As of September 22nd, the benchmark price of urea on SunSirs was 1,670.00 RMB/ton, down 2.48% from the price of 1,712.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The market for urea, a major raw material, was also in a state of supply and demand, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. Neither a significant surge to provide strong cost support for melamine nor a sharp drop to significantly improve production profits had occurred. This weak and stable raw material situation had deprived melamine prices of a key support anchor.

Market sentiment: Market participants were generally pessimistic. Manufacturers lacked confidence in the future market and were actively shipping products. Meanwhile, middlemen and downstream factories were generally bearish on the market and were reluctant to operate.

Market outlook

In summary, the continued weakness in the melamine market this week was the inevitable result of the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and low costs. The market was undergoing a difficult rebalancing process, and it needs to closely monitor upstream urea price trends and adjustments to melamine plant operating rates.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.