CONAB released its 12th production forecast report on Thursday, raising its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 171.47 million tons, up from 169.65 million tons forecast last month and a 13.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by higher yield expectations.

This month's soybean yield in Brazil is projected to be 3.621 tons per hectare, higher than the previous estimate of 3.560 tons per hectare and a 10.3% year-on-year increase. Planted area is slightly lowered to 47.351 million hectares, down from 47.367 million hectares forecast last month, and a 2.7% year-on-year increase.

This month's soybean export forecast for 2024/25 was slightly raised to 106.65 million tons, up from 106.25 million tons forecast last month and up from 98.81 million tons last year. This reflects robust demand from international buyers, with China, in particular, remaining the core driver.

Notably, soybean ending stocks were significantly raised this month to 10.292 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.941 million tons and higher than last year's estimate of 7.231 million tons (previous month's estimate was 770,000 tons).

Soybean product production and stocks were raised, while exports remained unchanged.

This month's forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean meal production is 45.2 million tons, higher than last month's forecast of 43.79 million tons and higher than last year's 41.02 million tons (previous month's estimate was 40.72 million tons). Domestic consumption is expected to be 19.5 million tons (up from last month's forecast of 19.36 million tons and lower than 18 million tons in 2024). Exports are expected to remain unchanged at 23.6 million tons, compared to 23.13 million tons last year. Inventories were significantly raised to 5.47 million tons, compared to last month's forecast of 2.3 million tons and 3.37 million tons last year (previous month's forecast was 1.46 million tons).

This month, Brazil's soybean oil production in 204/25 is expected to be 11.75 million tons, higher than the 11.37 million tons forecast last month and higher than the 10.91 million tons last year (10.56 million tons forecast last month); domestic consumption is expected to be 10.5 million tons, compared with 9.88 million tons forecast last month and 9.48 million tons last year (9.43 million tons forecast last month); exports are estimated at 1.4 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and 1.37 million tons last year; inventories are raised to 360,000 tons, compared with 320,000 tons forecast last month and lower than 470,000 tons last year (170,000 tons estimated last month).

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