Macroeconomics

1. [PMI] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising into the expansion range; the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that my country's enterprise production and operation activities generally expanded compared to the previous month.

2. [Total Social Logistics] According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, from January to November, the total social logistics volume nationwide was 331.2 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at comparable prices, with a 4.5% increase in November.

3. [Federal Reserve] The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates at the December meeting, but officials were sharply divided. Some participants indicated that, based on their economic outlook, it might be necessary to keep the target interest rate range unchanged for some time after lowering the interest rate range at this meeting. The minutes also showed that if inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials believe that further interest rate cuts would be appropriate. The committee members unanimously agreed that reserve balances have fallen to a sufficient level, and the committee will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bonds as needed to continuously maintain sufficient reserve supply. They also agreed to remove the overall limit on standing repurchase operations.

Agricultural Products

1. [Soybean Meal] According to the National Grain and Material Reserve Data Center: In the week of December 24th, domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, and soybean meal continued its inventory accumulation trend. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, soybean crushing volume is expected to fall to around 1.8 million tons, resulting in reduced soybean meal production. However, downstream feed companies have weak demand, and soybean meal inventory may remain at a high level of around 1 million tons at the end of the month.

2. [Soybeans] The U.S. Department of Agriculture's export inspection report shows that U.S. soybean export inspections decreased by 19% compared to the previous week and by 54% year-on-year. For the week ending December 25, 2025, U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 750,312 tons, compared to a revised 929,365 tons the previous week and 1,643,692 tons in the same period last year.

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