Early in the week, the main futures contract rolled over, triggering a sharp decline in market sentiment and corresponding price reductions across regions. From Tuesday to Thursday last week, futures prices fluctuated wildly. End-users procured based on demand, and spot quotations consolidated within a narrow range. According to SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of common mild steel plate (grade: Q235B; specification: 20mm) stood at 3,372 RMB/ton on September 5, down 0.30% from the previous Monday.

I. Influencing Factors

Billet Market: Domestic billet prices declined initially before stabilizing this week. As of September 5, Tangshan's common square billet (tax-inclusive) was quoted at 2,960 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week. Regarding inventory, Tangshan's major warehouses held 1.15 million tons, an increase of 96,400 tons from the previous week. During the military parade period, billet-rolling mills suspended operations, temporarily reducing procurement demand. Slowing demand led to market-driven inventory accumulation. Starting September 4, with the lifting of rolling mill production restrictions, demand is expected to increase. Considering the decline in finished steel prices coupled with recovering demand, next week's domestic billet market is projected to undergo fluctuating adjustments.

Supply and Demand

In the first half of the week, construction projects in some cities like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei were temporarily halted, compounded by persistent high temperatures across most of the country, keeping end-user demand low. In the latter half of the week, some suspended projects resumed operations. Futures for rebar fluctuated, while spot trading remained subdued. End-users procured only as needed, keeping overall apparent demand at low levels.

II. Analysis and Forecast

The resumption of production at steel and coke plants and construction sites in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has not significantly altered the overall supply-demand landscape. However, recent declines in finished steel product prices have reduced steel mill profitability, triggering the first round of coke price reductions and weakening expectations for raw material cost support. Additionally, rumors circulated over the weekend about detailed rules for “anti-internal competition” in nine major industries, causing futures markets to strengthen again while market sentiment turned cautious. Given that current supply-demand fundamentals remain largely unchanged, gradually subsiding high temperatures favor construction, and concerns persist over rising inventories, market operations remain prudent. Next week, the domestic mild steel plate market is expected to show positive momentum.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on September 11, the benchmark price of mild steel plate on SunSirs was 3,402.00 RMB/ton, down 0.58% from the beginning of this month (3,422.00 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).