In the first half of 2025, the global economy experienced moderate growth, with significant regional differentiation. Tariff policies and expectations of interest rate cuts alternately dominated market sentiment, leading to significant price fluctuations in the commodity market. Electrolytic aluminum prices performed well amidst a stable supply-demand relationship and positive market expectations. In the first half of the year, the average price of March aluminum futures on the Shanghai Components Exchange (SHFE) was 20,226 RMB/ton, and the average price of March aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was 2,546 US dollars/ton, representing year-on-year increases of 1.9% and 6.0%, respectively.

In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production remained generally stable, with capacity utilization remaining high at approximately 98%. Benefiting from the upgrade of cell equipment and the expanded application of low-carbon technologies such as graphitized cathodes, China's electrolytic aluminum energy consumption further decreased. The national average DC and AC power consumption for molten aluminum decreased by 0.4% and 0.36% year-on-year, respectively. The industry's cost competitiveness continued to improve, and the proportion of clean energy use continued to increase. Although some new electrolytic aluminum production capacity was commissioned overseas in the first half of the year, the overall scale was limited, and the impact on supply was relatively small. On the demand side, growth in areas such as power grid investment, photovoltaic installations, and new energy vehicles continued in the first half of the year, supporting domestic aluminum consumption. Global aluminum consumption growth exceeded supply growth for the third consecutive year in the first half of the year, leading to a slight shortage in the global electrolytic aluminum market.

In the second half of 2025, global electrolytic aluminum production will remain limited, while the growth rate of aluminum used in new energy vehicles is expected to remain stable. The supply of electrolytic aluminum will remain tight, and domestic and international aluminum ingot inventories are likely to remain at recent lows. Barring any unexpected market risks, the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive performance in the second half of the year.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on September 9, the benchmark aluminum price of SunSirs was 20,676.67 RMB/ton, down 0.34% from the beginning of this month (20,746.67 RMB/ton).

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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