In 2025, the global commodities market experienced a stark “two extremes” scenario, with divergent performance reaching its peak and breaking the traditional pattern of “rising and falling in tandem.” On one side, precious metals surged in a remarkable super bull market, with London spot gold soaring over 60% for the year, while spot silver soared by 102%. Core non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum also achieved remarkable price gains. Conversely, the crude oil market remained mired in oversupply, with black commodities enduring persistent price weakness. Additionally, the international agricultural market saw contrasting fortunes: edible oils capitalized on biofuel policies to dominate, while grains and cereals remained lackluster due to ample supply. Looking ahead to 2026, commodity markets are likely to maintain this divergent trajectory, closely tied to the macroeconomic backdrop of “weak recovery coupled with loose monetary policy.” The future commodity landscape is expected to be more volatile, presenting both opportunities and challenges.

The defining feature of the 2025 global commodities market was stark divergence across categories, driven by varying supply-demand structures, policy directions, and inherent characteristics. Precise strategic positioning replaced blind following, resulting in clearly delineated trends for different commodities.

First, consider precious metals. Gold and silver emerged as the year's strongest performers, driven by a dual-engine surge fueled by “de-dollarization and interest rate cuts.” London spot gold surged over 60% annually. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, far exceeding pre-2022 averages. Concurrently, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed that by the end of Q2 2025, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves had dropped to 56.32%, hitting a 30-year low, highlighting gold's value as a hard currency alternative. Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows exceeding 700 tons, pushing total holdings past 3,932 tons—a record annual increase. Silver surged unexpectedly by year-end 2025, driven by an 18% increase in global photovoltaic installations boosting industrial demand. Its market resilience outperformed gold by 30%, even triggering a “squeeze” in October due to insufficient inventories.

Next, non-ferrous metals. Copper, aluminum, and others saw price strength supported by tight supply-demand balances. On January 6, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price rose 1.9% to $13,238 per ton, hitting an intraday high of $13,387.5—a new all-time record. The British Commodity Research Institute estimates a cumulative global copper mine deficit of 3.13 million tons from 2026 to 2029, primarily due to supply instability. Global copper mine disruption rates consistently exceeded 10% in 2025, with major mines in Chile and Peru experiencing frequent issues. On the demand side, Bloomberg data indicates that copper demand related to the green transition accounts for 17% of total consumption. This includes a 10% growth rate in China's power grid investment, a 12% increase in U.S. distribution network investment, an 8% rise in European investment, and new data centers consuming 400,000 tons of copper annually. Aluminum prices also remain robust, with green demand accounting for 15% driven by lightweighting in new energy vehicles and aluminum frames for photovoltaic modules. Electrolytic aluminum producers are expected to see significant profit growth for the year.

Turning to crude oil and ferrous commodities, both remain mired in supply-demand imbalances and underperform. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that the global daily crude oil surplus will reach 1.795 million barrels by 2025, with October alone seeing a surplus of 4.43 million barrels. The OPEC+ alliance—comprising OPEC member states and non-OPEC producers—has consecutively lifted 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts over the past six months, further exacerbating the oversupply. However, the refined oil market bucked the trend. Increased U.S. sanctions against Russia reduced Russian diesel exports by 200,000 barrels per day, while global refining capacity remained unresolved, pushing diesel crack spreads to their second-highest level in five years for the same period. Black commodities emerged as the worst-performing sector. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that in the first ten months of 2025, China imported a total of 1.03 billion tons of iron ore, an increase of 8 million tons year-on-year. Port inventories rebounded to 153 million tons in the fourth quarter, while steel mill profitability fell from 68.4% in August to 36.4%. Although steel exports grew by 9.2% year-on-year, prices approached the cost line.

Finally, agricultural products. Edible oils stood out. Data shows Indonesia and Brazil raised their biodiesel blending ratios to 35% and 15% respectively, while the U.S. increased its total biofuel blending volume, driving industrial consumption of palm oil and soybean oil up 8% year-on-year. Other agricultural commodities, however, remain weak. A bumper corn harvest in the U.S. in 2025 could push year-end inventories up 12% year-on-year, potentially driving prices lower. Soybean prices are expected to fluctuate by less than 15% throughout 2025, influenced by improved weather conditions in South America and ample supply.

Based on the analysis above, the divergent landscape of the commodities market in 2025 has already taken shape. A research report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests that three core drivers are profoundly reshaping the supply-demand dynamics and price trajectories of different commodity categories.

First, the accelerating “de-dollarization” process is redefining the monetary attributes of precious metals. As the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves declines, central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold holdings to diversify their asset portfolios, creating long-term support. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have also reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, further attracting market capital inflows. This synergy between central bank and market funds is driving significant increases in precious metal prices.

Second, the deepening green transition is restructuring demand for base metals. Guided by the “dual carbon” goals, rapid development in green industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and power grid construction is fueling sustained growth in demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and silver, serving as the core driver of price increases.

Third, geopolitical conflicts and policy adjustments have disrupted energy and agricultural commodity markets. Enhanced U.S.-EU sanctions against Russia directly impacted diesel supply, while OPEC+'s fluctuating production cut policies amplified crude oil market volatility. Regional adjustments to new energy policies directly stimulated market demand and influenced price trends.

What will the global commodities market look like in 2026?

Overall, the global macroeconomic environment in 2026 will feature “weak recovery and loose monetary policy.” The IMF's latest forecast indicates that global real GDP growth will reach 3.1% in 2026, a moderation compared to 2025. Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points in 2026 and may end quantitative tightening, which will benefit commodities with strong financial attributes. Market analysts suggest that from an investment perspective, the 2026 global commodities market will present three major structural opportunities: strategic security, green transition, and emerging demand, while market divergence will persist.

Regarding strategic security, precious metals and core base metals retain strong support. Amid current deglobalization trends, nations' demand for “resource autonomy and security” is intensifying. The World Gold Council forecasts that global central bank gold purchases will remain above 1,000 tons annually. Goldman Sachs has set a year-end 2026 gold price target of $4,900 per ounce, while JPMorgan predicts gold could reach $5,000 per ounce if geopolitical conflicts escalate. Silver, however, offers greater price elasticity. Market analysts project silver prices could still rise by 20% by 2026. Non-ferrous metal supplies are significantly impacted by geopolitics and policy adjustments, with regional supply chain concentration exacerbating “localized shortages”—particularly causing substantial volatility in copper prices. Most institutions remain bearish on the crude oil market, as oversupply is unlikely to change in the short term. With geopolitical conflicts persisting, international oil prices will continue seeking equilibrium amid fluctuating declines.

Regarding the green transition, critical minerals, specialty metals, and oils have become essential demands. An International Energy Agency study indicates that by 2030, the share of green development-related demand in global copper and aluminum consumption will rise from 17% and 15% to 24% and 25%, respectively. Over the next five years, this trend is projected to drive annual growth in copper and aluminum consumption by 3% and 2.5%, respectively. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that industrial use of soybean oil in the U.S. will reach 60% by 2030. Soybean oil demand is projected to increase by 4% in 2026, while the price benchmark for palm oil is expected to rise by 10% year-on-year.

Emerging demand sectors present substantial growth potential. The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) industries and industrialization in emerging economies is creating new growth engines. Research indicates that from 2025 to 2035, newly built global data centers will consume 400,000 tons of copper annually—approximately 2% of global copper production. This implies that for every doubling of AI computing power, copper demand increases by 1.2 times. Moreover, countries and regions in the early stages of industrialization exhibit 50% higher demand for steel, copper, and aluminum than developed nations. Over the next decade, global demand for critical raw materials will remain robust.

Of course, opportunities coexist with risks. Global commodity investments in 2026 must guard against multidimensional risks. At the macro level, significant uncertainty surrounds the global economy's “weak recovery.” Should the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts fall short of expectations, it could undermine the financial attributes underpinning precious metals and non-ferrous metals. Risk differentiation across commodities will also become more pronounced. Crude oil prices face pressure to rebound, with their potential bottoming out in 2026 hinging on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and OPEC policy shifts. Prices for ferrous commodities, particularly iron ore and steel, are unlikely to break away from their cost-driven ranges. Additionally, agricultural products remain highly susceptible to extreme weather and policy shifts. The greatest uncertainty lies in geopolitical conflicts potentially exacerbating supply chain security issues, triggering regional shortages. Meanwhile, escalating trade barriers will disrupt commodity price stability, necessitating cautious management.

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