According to SunSirs price monitoring, stainless steel prices rose modestly last week. As of September 5, the daily average spot price for 304/2B stainless steel flat plate (1.0mm thickness, 1219mm width, 2438mm length, tolerance 0.91mm) stood at 12,142.86 RMB/ton, up 0.41% from the beginning of the week but down 4.03% year-on-year.

SunSirs analysis tools indicate nickel and stainless steel prices have followed similar trajectories, both experiencing recent modest declines.

Total stainless steel inventories last week stood at 1.0536 million tons, down 2.7% from the previous week, with both hot-rolled and cold-rolled inventories decreasing.

Raw Materials: The nickel ore market has been relatively calm recently, with prices mostly stable. Transactions for 1.3% nickel ore resources FOB 32 were common in September; 1.3% nickel ore to Indonesia CIF 42 was available, showing a sequential increase. Indonesia's August (Phase I) domestic benchmark price for nickel ore is expected to rise by $0.2-0.3, with the mainstream domestic premium remaining at +24. Ferronickel prices trended firm within a stable range. A major South China steel mill's tender price for high-nickel ferronickel reached 940 RMB/nickel (tax-inclusive at bunker delivery), up 40 RMB/nickel from its previous public inquiry price. Strong cost support for chromite ore combined with reduced ferrochrome supply in August led to tight supply and rising prices.

Supply & Demand Outlook: Estimated August crude steel output from stainless steel mills is 3.2795 million tons, up 68,700 tons (2.14%) month-on-month but down 2.37% year-on-year. Weak terminal order releases have dampened enterprises' motivation for large-scale procurement. The reality of weak terminal demand persists, with traditional downstream sectors showing subdued demand and emerging downstream sectors facing overall slower growth expectations. Purchasing remains focused on replenishing essential inventory, while traders' bargaining power has expanded but still struggles to drive significant volume.

The increase in August crude steel output is expected to exert some pressure on the supply side. Entering the peak season in September, demand is anticipated to improve under seasonal and policy factors, though actual demand remains to be seen. Stainless steel market prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term.

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