The domestic refined oil price adjustment window was open at 24:00 on September 9th. The retail price of refined oil was not be adjusted for the time being. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, seven downward adjustments, and four grounding. During this cycle, the crude oil market first rose and then fell, and the positive rate of change in crude oil continued to shrink. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered a "fifth grounding".

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first rose and then fell. As of the 8th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.26 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.02 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell, and geopolitical factors are still one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market. In the later stage, due to the possible increase in Saudi crude oil production and the increase in US crude oil inventories, coupled with the end of the US peak oil season, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, and the crude oil market price is under pressure, resulting in a slight decline in the crude oil market. As of the 9th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day is 1020%, corresponding to the adjustment red line of less than 50 yuan/ton for domestic gasoline and diesel. The retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted for this round.

In terms of gasoline, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating load, resulting in a slight increase in operating rate. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 85%. The supply of refined oil products from local refining has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, and transactions have further been hit. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been a slight increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, the rainy weather has increased, and the terminal demand has weakened. After the summer harvest, agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. After entering September, the fishing ban period in the north will end, and there will be an increase in marine oil compared to before. The decline in the diesel market is relatively small.

Looking ahead, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term, which weakens the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries in the short term has continued to increase, and the supply of refined oil products has become loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, resulting in mainly fluctuating and declining gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may fluctuate mainly in the later period.

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