The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on December 8th, and the retail price of refined oil has been lowered again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced seven upward adjustments, ten downward adjustments, and six stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, and the negative value of crude oil change rate has narrowed. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered the "eleventh" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is fluctuating at a low level. As of the 5th, the settlement price of the January WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States is $60.08 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract is $63.75 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation eased slightly, and coupled with the weakening of US demand, the US tariff issue dragged down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a low international oil price market. In the later stage, OPEC+oil producing countries postponed production increases, and the geopolitical peace agreement was unlikely to be reached. Geopolitical factors led to an upward trend in crude oil prices. As of the 8th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -1.20%, corresponding to a reduction of 55 RMB/ton of gasoline and 55 RMB/ton of diesel in domestic oil prices, equivalent to a reduction of 89 # 0.04 RMB, 92 # 0.04 RMB, 95 # 0.04 RMB, and 0 # 0.05 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong refineries is relatively stable, with operating rates maintained. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 54%. Recently, the main refineries in the country have seen an increase in load reduction, resulting in a decrease in operating rates, which has led to low resource inventory levels in some units. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, but with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the frequency of private car use, the demand for gasoline in the domestic market has increased. However, the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has resulted in lower than expected demand performance, leading to a slight rise in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal, and the demand side is still dominated by essential needs. The recent increase in low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern regions has hindered diesel infrastructure and logistics transportation. In addition, the use of diesel in agriculture has come to an end, and the demand for diesel has weakened compared to before. As a result, the diesel market has slightly declined.

Looking at the future, the supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated recently, and concerns about the reduction of crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions still support oil prices. However, there is no improvement in crude oil demand. Overall, international oil prices are mainly weak and volatile in the short term, which has limited cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, the supply of refined oil is loose, and the news is biased towards bearish or limiting market sentiment. In addition, with the increasing impact of winter atmosphere, the expectation of diesel demand is suppressed, and the demand for gasoline has improved, making gasoline more resilient to decline.

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