Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, stainless steel prices rose before falling last week. As of August 15, the average daily price of 304/2B stainless steel flat sheet (1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91)) was 12,192.86 RMB/ton, up 0.23% from the beginning of the week and down 3.99% year-on-year.

According to the price difference analysis tool of SunSirs, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were basically similar, and both rose first and then fell recently.

Analysis review

Last week, stainless steel inventories totaled 1.0789 million tons, down 2.48% from last week’s previous week, with both cold rolled and hot rolled inventories declining.

Raw materials: The nickel ore market has been relatively calm recently, with prices remaining largely stable. Many Philippine mines were in the loading and shipping phase. Mainstream ferronickel prices had risen to 940-950 RMB/nickel (bottom price including tax), pending finalization of transactions. Prices remained stable but slightly stronger. Steel mills' August bidding prices were generally in line with market expectations. Supported by chrome ore costs, ferrochrome mills were holding prices high, and ferrochrome prices are expected to remain strong and stable.

Supply and Demand: Domestic stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.3041 million tons of crude steel in August, a 2.29% month-over-month increase and a 1.64% year-over-year decrease. As consumption transitions from the off-season to the peak season, downstream procurement remained cautious, and spot market transactions were generally weak.

Future outlook:

Stainless steel mills proactively reduced production to address insufficient demand, but these reductions were relatively modest and unsustainable, making it difficult to alleviate short-term market supply pressure. Weak end-user demand remained a reality. Traditional downstream sectors were experiencing a low season, and growth in emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline overall. Purchases were primarily driven by essential needs to replenish inventory. While cost support strengthened recently, fundamentals remained constrained by weak spot demand. It is expected that the stainless steel market will be mainly volatile and stronger in the short term.

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