Stainless steel market trends in 2025

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices fluctuated and declined in 2025.  The price at the beginning of the year was 12,057.14 RMB/ton, falling by 3.03% to 11,691.67 RMB/ton by the end of the year. The lowest price during the year was 11,391.67 RMB/ton on November 24th, and the highest price was 12,707.14 RMB/ton on April 3rd, with a fluctuation range of 11.55%. The 2025 stainless steel market exhibited overall characteristics of increased supply, differentiated demand, declining costs, and pressure on profits, indicating that the industry entered a deep adjustment phase characterized by cost reduction without increased efficiency.

Cost side

In 2025, nickel pig iron prices showED a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the continued release of nickel pig iron production capacity in Indonesia, the persistence of a global nickel oversupply, and a downward shift in the average nickel price. Towards the end of the year, disruptions in Indonesian nickel ore supply pushed up nickel prices, with Tsingshan's nickel pig iron tender price reaching 910 RMB/nickel (FOB, including tax), for a quantity of 30,000 tons and a delivery period of one month, a month-on-month increase of 30 yuan/nickel. Chromium iron prices in 2025 remained relatively firm, mainly supported by the vulnerability of the South African supply chain, keeping chromium prices at high levels with some fluctuations.

Regarding stainless steel supply

China's stainless steel production from 2010 to 2025

In 2025, China's crude stainless steel production continued its growth trend, reaching nearly 40 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.5%. Specifically, 300-series production increased by about 5.7%, 200-series production by a slight 2.2%, and 400-series production by 4.8%.

Stainless steel import and export volumes from 2010 to 2025

From January to November 2025, stainless steel exports totaled 4.5452 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%; imports totaled 1.3742 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; and net exports reached 3.1719 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 13%. Despite the dual pressures of a global economic downturn and trade barriers, the total export volume remained relatively stable.

Stainless steel inventory

As of the end of the month, stainless steel inventory reached 977,000 tons, a 9.2% increase compared to the beginning of the month. Both cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel inventories saw increases.

Downstream demand for stainless steel

Apparent consumption of stainless steel from 2010 to 2025

90% of the stainless steel market relied on domestic demand, and exports have declined. From the perspective of domestic demand, the overall expectation is for a slight increase in apparent stainless steel consumption. Compared to 2024, the apparent consumption of stainless steel is expected to increase slightly.

National real estate construction starts and completions

From January to October, the sales area of newly built commercial housing reached 719.82 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; of which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 7.0%. The sales value of newly built commercial housing reached 6,901.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%; of which, the sales value of residential housing decreased by 9.4%. From January to October, the construction area of buildings by real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 4,552.53 million square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The newly started construction area of buildings was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. Among them, the newly started construction area of residential buildings was 359.52 million square meters, a decrease of 19.3%. The completed construction area of buildings was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Among them, the completed construction area of residential buildings was 248.66 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%.

Home Appliance Industry:

Regarding domestic demand, since 2025, under the influence of policy stimulus and tariff disruptions, the home appliance industry has seen a divergence between domestic and export sales. In the domestic market, the stimulating effect of the trade-in policy has gradually weakened, and replacement of existing appliances has become the mainstream. Regarding external demand, starting in April 2025, my country's home appliance exports declined year-on-year, breaking the recovery trend since 2023. Short-term pressure is concentrated, as the US imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has increased the cost of Chinese exports to the US, and coupled with shrinking demand due to overseas inflation, this has suppressed export growth. Overall, with the phasing out of policies and the drag from the real estate sector, the home appliance industry will likely exhibit a pattern of "stable domestic sales and export support" in the future.

Automobile production

In November 2025, my country's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year-on-year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, cumulative automobile production and sales reached 31.231 million and 31.127 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. my country's automobile production and sales have ranked first globally for 16 consecutive years. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2024, my country's automobile production and sales reached 31.282 million and 31.436 million units respectively. Of these, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 12 million units, and new energy vehicles accounted for 40.9% of total new car sales.

Factors influencing the market in 2026:

New stainless steel production capacity

Numerous cold rolling and steelmaking projects are still planned for commissioning in 2026 and beyond, including projects by Tsingshan Fuling, Taiyuan Iron & Steel (Taiyuan Xinhai), and Yongjin in Gansu and Jingjiang, among others. The cumulative capacity remains considerable. Indonesia, leveraging its integrated cost advantages, is also continuing to expand; Glory Metal Indonesia's 1.2 million-ton-per-year stainless steel project began trial production in November 2025, and Jindal Steel & Power in India also plans to invest 57 billion rupees to implement a green expansion strategy.

The country is strengthening efforts to reduce production and improve environmental protection.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) clearly signaled that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, policies to control crude steel production and strictly prohibit the addition of new capacity in violation of regulations will continue to be implemented.

Market Outlook

In summary, nickel prices in 2026 are likely to remain under pressure due to the persistent surplus, and the average price is expected to continue to decline. However, recent disruptions in Indonesian nickel mining have intensified, leading to tighter supply expectations and driving significant volatility in nickel prices. If the expected Indonesian policies fail to materialize, prices will revert to weak fluctuations driven by supply and demand; if the supply disruptions substantially tighten, a temporary rebound window may open. Chromium prices in 2026 are likely to remain volatile at high levels, as the price resilience of the ferrochrome market will still depend on the stability of the South African supply chain. Any production or export disruptions from the main producing regions will trigger sharp price fluctuations.

Against the backdrop of strengthened policy intervention, the stainless steel industry is currently undergoing production cuts and environmental upgrades. Driven by the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry," environmental costs are rising, and high-cost production capacity faces pressure to be eliminated, potentially slowing down the pace of supply growth. On the demand side, no significant improvement is expected in 2026, with the real estate sector remaining sluggish, while home appliances and automobiles provide some support. Therefore, stainless steel prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in 2026.

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