Price trend

Aluminum prices have been fluctuating sideways recently, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20,746.67 RMB/ton, up 0.73% from the average price of 20,596.67 RMB/ton on August 1.

Macro News

International: Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a decline in the US dollar index supported commodities, but the US consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August (recession risks remained), weighing on sentiment for industrial products. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia's temporary ban on motor gasoline sales in September exacerbated market uncertainty.

Domestically, Shanghai's optimized real estate policies (lifting purchase restrictions outside the Outer Ring Road and increasing housing provident fund loan quotas) boosted demand for aluminum profiles and building formwork. However, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell 1.7% year-on-year from January to July, indicating weak momentum for consumption recovery.

Industry Fundamentals News

Supply, demand and inventory

Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 44.035 million tons (close to the industry upper limit), and the short-term increase is limited; some companies reduced production (Shandong Weichai reduced production by 500,000 tons, Qinghai Chalco reduced production by 400,000 tons) and resumed production (Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Aluminum Industry plans to resume production by another 50,000 tons this year).

Demand: Downstream demand had rebounded slightly, with the processing fee of aluminum bars rising to 190 RMB/ton and the output of aluminum bars reaching 62,400 tons. However, the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry was only 50.5%, orders for automobile and photovoltaic profiles had decreased, and weak demand in the photovoltaic industry still posed pressure.

Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 610,000 tons (an increase of 7,000 tons compared with August 25), the social inventory of aluminum bars was 136,200 tons (an increase of 1,300 tons), and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 481,250 tons (an increase of 3,175 tons). The inventory reduction trend slowed down and the pressure increased.

Cost side

The average spot price of alumina was 3,235 RMB/ton (down 10 RMB/ton from the previous day, with light transactions); the price of prebaked anodes was 4,913 RMB/ton (unchanged); the average price of thermal coal Q5500 was 571 RMB/ton (down 2 RMB/ton), and the overall cost support was neutral.

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