Macro
1. Promoting service exports: According to the Ministry of Commerce, a series of policy measures to promote service exports and several policy measures to expand service consumption will be launched in the near future.
2. Logistics: According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, from January to July, the total social logistics volume in China was 201.9 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From a structural perspective, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth area continued to expand. 35 industries have achieved year-on-year growth in logistics demand, with a growth rate exceeding 85%. Among them, the demand for high-end manufacturing logistics is growing rapidly.
3. Federal Reserve: New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to lower interest rates at the appropriate time. We still maintain a moderately restrictive stance in policy, and if the neutral interest rate is 1% or slightly lower, we are now in a restricted area. He also expressed considerable optimism about the economic situation.
4. South Korean interest rate: The Bank of Korea has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, which is in line with market expectations.
Energy
1. Crude oil: On August 27th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.15 per barrel, an increase of $0.90 or 1.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November was $67.44 per barrel, an increase of $0.74 or 1.1%.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil surplus will expand, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. This will result in a global inventory increase of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026.
2. Coal: On August 27th, a large coal mine in Wanbailin District, Taiyuan, stopped production with a capacity of 5 million tons. The mine currently mainly produces blended lean coal and thermal coal, and the resumption time is yet to be determined.
3. Coking coal: On August 27th, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market fell by 10 RMB/ton, with the ex factory cash price including tax of A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and 0.15 lithofacies refined coal of medium sulfur main coke being 1,240 RMB/ton.
4. Petroleum coke: On August 27th, Shangneng Petrochemical's pellet coke was priced at 950 RMB/ton, an increase of 10 RMB/ton from the previous trading day. The sulfur content was around 4.87 RMB, and the daily production of petroleum coke was 600 tons.
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