Price trend

According to the SunSirs’ Commodity Market Analysis System, the toluene market experienced a volatile upward trend from July 28 to August 4, 2025. The benchmark price of toluene was 54,900 RMB/ton on July 28, and 5,580 RMB/ton on August 4, a 1.64% increase. This week, the domestic toluene market was dominated by market activity. Maintenance at Dongming Petrochemical in Shandong Province and a reduction in production at Yulong Petrochemical impacted provincial supply. This tight supply boosted major refineries, which in turn raised prices. Recent arrivals in East and South China had been limited, and prices generally rose last week due to this tight supply.

Analysis review

Cost: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed lower, with the September contract for WTI crude oil futures settling at $67.33 per barrel. The October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.67 per barrel. Market concerns about OPEC's potential increase in oil production, coupled with U.S. employment data, dampened demand prospects.

Supply: Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remained stable. As of August 4th, the East China unit quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, the North China unit 5,500 RMB/ton, the South China unit 5,750-5,800 RMB/ton, and the Central China unit 5,600 RMB/ton.

Demand Side: On August 4th, Sinopec Sales Company's paraxylene prices remained stable at 7,000 RMB/ton. This price applied to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales were normal. This price was down 250 RMB/ton from July 28th. As of August 1st, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $834-836/ton FOB Korea and $859-861/ton CFR China, a decrease of $13/ton from July 25th.

Market outlook

On the supply side, some plants are expected to start production soon, while others are undergoing maintenance, resulting in minimal supply fluctuations. On the demand side, demand from the downstream oil blending and chemical industries is generally weak, with demand being primarily for basic needs. Overall, the supply and demand picture is stable with a slight bearish bias, and the toluene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term.

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