Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: In July 2025, the domestic 1# lead ingot market fell slightly. The average domestic market price was 16,995 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,725 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.59%.

On July 31st, the SunSirs’ Lead Index was 101.79 points, down 0.48 points from the previous day, down 24.04% from its cyclical high of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), and up 36.39% from its cyclical low of 74.63 points (March 19, 2015). (Note: The cyclical period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to the present.)

Analysis review

Market trends diverged in mid-month. Profits in the recycled lead industry recovered in the first half of the month, and companies' expectations for increased production continued to strengthen. Against this backdrop, Shanghai lead prices began to decline from a high of 17,300 RMB/ton, finding cost support around 16,800 RMB/ton. However, due to weak market demand during the off-season, Shanghai lead prices rebounded but failed to break through the 17,000 RMB/ton mark.

On the supply side

Kazakhstan implemented a policy completely banning the export of unwrought refined lead in any form. This had led to a continued tight supply of lead concentrate and scrap batteries, providing strong support for lead costs. As of July 31, high sulfuric acid and silver prices had boosted production at primary lead refineries. However, Yuguang's old production line was undergoing maintenance, and Jinli had implemented production cuts, but these adjustments were unlikely to offset the negative impact of the seasonal consumption downturn. Meanwhile, the recovery of recycled lead production was slow, and the price gap between refined lead and scrap lead had occasionally inverted, leading downstream companies to prefer lower-priced primary lead. As this trend continued, the number of lead stocks in social lead warehouses had gradually increased, indirectly reflecting the weakness in the consumer market.

On the demand side

Next month is traditionally a peak season for consumption, but as of July 31, the market faced numerous unfavorable factors. The Middle East launched an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese starter lead-acid batteries, and high tariffs had already been implemented. Meanwhile, the results of the third round of China-US trade consultations had yet to be announced, and the US had imposed tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, indirectly impacting Chinese battery exports. Furthermore, China's trade-in policy had led to some premature consumption, resulting in a pre-emptive consumption trend. These factors were fueling market concerns that this year's peak season may not meet expectations.

Future outlook:

The fundamentals of the lead market were improving and showing signs of recovery, but the supply-demand imbalance was not significant and was generally limited. Any potential rebound in lead prices will depend largely on actual consumer performance, with the market awaiting inventory levels to confirm the extent to which peak season demand will materialize. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.

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