Price trend

Looking back at July, much of China experienced sustained high temperatures, with localized torrential rain and flooding, slowing outdoor construction progress and a pronounced off-season demand. However, with multiple ministries and commissions speaking out against internal competition, raw material prices continued to rise, with ferrous metals attracting significant attention. Market capital poured in, driving strong futures bullishness and boosting market sentiment, leading to significant price increases across the board. According to the SunSirs’ Commodity Market Analysis System, the price of common medium-sized steel plate (material: Q235B; specification: 20) was 3,212 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1st) and 3,422 RMB/ton at the end of the month (July 31st), a 6.54% increase from the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

Cost side

As of July 31st, the ex-factory price of standard carbon billet in Tangshan was 3,140 RMB/ton, up 220 RMB/ton from the end of the previous month. Major raw materials saw significant price increases across the board in July, with billet prices experiencing a volatile surge. As August approached, the tight coal market remained, steelmakers' profitability was expanding, and demand for raw materials remained strong. It is expected that the increase in steel production costs will slow in August.

Inventory

As of July 31, the cumulative inventory of rebar in major sample cities nationwide reached 3.8657 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 208,700 tons and a decrease of 1.6746 million tons compared to the same period last year. The cumulative inventory of wire rod reached 604,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 71,600 tons and a decrease of 170,600 tons compared to the same period last year. The cumulative inventory of the five major steel varieties reached 9.5093 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 366,100 tons and a decrease of 3.2011 million tons compared to the same period last year.

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid-July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.66 million tons, an increase of 580,000 tons from the previous ten days, a growth of 3.9%; an increase of 3.29 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 26.6%; a decrease of 550,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous month, a decrease of 3.4%; a decrease of 640,000 tons from the same ten days last year, a decrease of 3.9%; and a decrease of 10,000 tons from the same ten days of the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%.

Imports and Exports

Data from the General Administration of Customs indicates that in June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, down 8.5% from the previous month and marking the first month-over-month decline since March of this year. The average export price was $687.1 per ton, a slight decrease of 1.6% from the previous month. From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The average export price was $699.3 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%.

In June, my country imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 2.4% month-on-month, with an average import price of $1,712.5 per ton, a decrease of 2.1% month-on-month. From January to June, China's cumulative steel imports reached 3.023 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%, with an average import price of $1,686.4 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.

Market outlook

As entering August, SunSirs initially predicts that in early August, with the release of macroeconomic information, market sentiment will cool, and some traders will cash out at high prices, potentially leading to a moderate correction in steel prices. In mid-August, with a tight supply-demand balance and supportive raw material costs, market sentiment will calm, and spot prices will fluctuate and consolidate. In late August, expectations of production restrictions will intensify due to the military parade, and the approaching peak September season will boost market confidence, leading to stronger prices across the board. Based on this, SunSirs believes the domestic mild steel plate market in August will see a correction from high levels, followed by further increases.

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