Price trend

According to the SunSirs’commodity market analysis system, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in July 2025. From July 1 to 30, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,820 RMB/ton to 5,490 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.67% over the period.

Analysis review

Early July: The toluene market saw a volatile upward trend this cycle. Supply in Shandong was tight this cycle, with some plants shutting down for maintenance, significantly tightening the market. Downstream oil blending companies showed some enthusiasm for entering the market, and overall demand remained firm. Supply in East and South China was also tight this cycle, impacted by port conditions. Supported by favorable supply conditions, market prices generally rose.

Mid-July: Markets across all regions experienced a general downturn during this cycle. Weak demand in Shandong led to frequent price cuts from refineries, resulting in a significant price decline. Later, as prices continued to decline, downstream companies restocked at low prices, leading to a significant improvement in shipments. Demand from oil blending companies was strong, while other sectors were experiencing limited demand. Low inventories boosted prices in East China, leading to a slight decline in prices. Low inventories in South China, coupled with weak downstream demand, led to a slight price decline.

Late July: The domestic xylene market rebounded slightly after an overall decline during this period, but overall performance remained weak. Lower crude oil prices during the period weighed on market sentiment. Downstream demand in Shandong was weak, and despite refineries proactively lowering their bids, transaction volume remained limited. With downstream PX producers entering the market to replenish inventories, the market saw a slight recovery. However, performance in East China remained weak, with inventories remaining low. In South China, with refinery listing price reductions, the market declined, and downstream demand remained relatively rigid.

Cost: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. Crude oil prices have been volatile during this round of price adjustments. On the one hand, OPEC+ is likely to complete its planned 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of September, and the news of a trade agreement between the US and Japan has caused a decline in the international oil market. On the other hand, market concerns about tariff negotiations between the US and Europe, the Middle East issue, and the unrest in Europe have continued to affect crude oil prices.

On the supply side, Sinopec's toluene units were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. As of July 30, the East China unit quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, the North China unit 5,500 RMB/ton, the South China unit 5,750-5,800 RMB/ton, and the Central China unit 5,550 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the SunSirs’commodity market analysis system, as of July 31, 2025, the price of p-xylene at Sinopec Sales Company remained stable at 7,250 RMB/ton. This price applied to East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, with sales normal. This price was 50 RMB/ton lower than on June 29. As of July 30, the closing price of p-xylene in the Asian market was $841-843/ton FOB Korea and $866-868/ton CFR China, unchanged from June 27.

Future outlook:

The toluene market has been significantly impacted by supply and demand recently. While some plants have restarted, most of this was for domestic use, with no export sales. Supply has remained relatively stable, with no significant increase in demand, and overall demand remained relatively rigid. With no significant changes in either supply or demand, the toluene market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited potential for both declines and increases. Future trends in crude oil should be closely monitored.

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