In the middle of this month, due to the disturbance of South African manganese mines, futures prices rose sharply, but then the strike was temporarily resolved after South African Transport Minister Barbara Crecy and Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana jointly approved a new 51 billion rand guarantee for Transnet, and silicomanganese futures prices fell rapidly. However, the fundamentals of silicomanganese have not changed much; although manufacturers have reduced production, the overall oversupply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term.

According to the data of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of silicomanganese in Ningxia (specification FeMN68Si18) at the end of this month was around 5400-5600 RMB/ton, and the average market price was 5570.00 RMB/ton, down 1.24% from the beginning of the month.

1. Influencing factors

Silicomanganese inventory is high

This month, some factories in Inner Mongolia resumed production after maintenance, and other factories completed technical transformation and put into new production capacity. The settlement electricity price in April was around 0.40-0.42 RMB/kWh. The manufacturers maintained long-term contract orders and the inventory level in the factory remained in the normal range. The manufacturers in Ningxia that reduced production in the early stage still maintained a reduction in production. The expectation of continued production reduction in May was low. Affected by long-term losses, the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production was still general.

In the south, due to the high electricity price cost, the factory production loss was serious, the factory production enthusiasm was low, and the output was reduced compared with the previous period. The low-valley electricity price policy in Guilin, Guangxi was temporarily cancelled, and some factories planned to stop production for maintenance.

As of April 25, 2025, the latest weekly manganese silicon production was 165,200 tons, an increase of 2,450 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.51%; the average daily output was 23,600 tons, an increase of 350 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 34.18%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous period.

At present, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts has reached a record high for the same period, totaling 576,000 tons. The inventory of alloy plants is also at a high level, and the pressure to destock is relatively large. The sample inventory of 63 independent silicon and manganese enterprises is 201,100 tons, which is generally at a high level.

The supply of manganese ore is still expected to increase

This month, the port clearance volume of Tianjin Port remained at a high level of more than 480,000 tons per week, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth. On the one hand, the demand for manganese ore in the north remains high and there is still an expectation of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the year, which supports the demand for manganese ore; on the other hand, starting next month, South32 Australian mines will gradually resume arriving at the port, putting pressure on the supply side of manganese ore.

Overall, the current inventory of manganese ore is still at a low level in recent years, and cost support still exists. At this stage, manganese ore is facing a strong trend of both supply and demand, and the market shipment mentality is divided. The price is more closely related to the downstream silicon and manganese market.

Data shows that the current price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Tianjin Port is 41 RMB/ton, semi-carbonic acid is 33.5 RMB/ton, and Gabon blocks are 37-37.5 RMB/ton; the price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Qinzhou Port is 41-41.5 RMB/ton, semi-carbonic acid is 33.5-34 RMB/ton, and Gabon blocks are 39 RMB/ton.

Poor terminal demand

It is reported that the current blast furnace molten iron remains at a high level, the electric furnace operation is also high, and the steel mill profit is still acceptable. The blast furnace operation rate of the steel mill is 83.69%; the profit rate of the steel mill is 59.74%, and the average daily molten iron output is 2.436 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons compared with last year. The mainstream steel bidding price this month was finalized, and the final price was 5,850 RMB/ton. Although it was reduced by 100 RMB/ton month-on-month from the previous month, the number of bids increased slightly from the previous month. In the short term, the steel mill production reduction drive is insufficient, which supports the demand for manganese silicon.

The downstream hot metal production is at a high level, which has a certain boost on silicomanganese prices in the short term, but the demand for terminal steel may weaken seasonally, and the previous "rush to export" also consumed some demand in advance.

The National Development and Reform Commission recently announced that it will accelerate the elimination of backward and inefficient production capacity in industries such as steel, play a good role in quality and standard support, and promote mergers and reorganizations in a market-oriented manner. The terminal demand is not good, and the negative feedback pressure is still there.

2. Market Forecast

On the whole, the large-scale reduction and suspension of production by silicomanganese production enterprises in mid-May has slowed down. The current supply of silicomanganese has stopped falling and rebounded, the demand is limited, the inventory is high, and the fundamental support is weakened. The analysis of SunSirs believes that the fluctuation of silicomanganese market may remain weak in the short term.

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