October - early November, the international cobalt price experienced a significant rise. The MB cobalt offer price increased from $18.88/lb at the beginning of October to $23.43/lb at the beginning of November, a rise of 25.5%. Among them, the average price of MB cobalt in October was $21.03/lb, an increase of 28.9% compared to September. As of November 19, the average price in November further increased to $23.58/lb, a rise of 12.1% compared to the previous month. Although the upward trend has slowed down, the high-level operation trend has been established. The domestic market also strengthened synchronously. In October, the average price of refined cobalt reached 386,000 yuan/ton, a surge of 37.6% compared to the previous month. Against the backdrop of the implementation of the export quota policy in the DRC, the impact of the domestic continuous inventory reduction has been fully reflected in the price.

Congo (DRC) quota system fully implemented

The global cobalt supply chain pattern is deeply restructured.

On the macro level, in October, the global cobalt price, driven by the full implementation of the export quota policy in the DRC, entered a new stage of profound adjustment in supply and demand structure. The quota system of the country came into effect officially on October 16th, marking a shift from a temporary ban to long-term systematic regulation in the management strategy of the DRC government's resources. According to the official rules, the cobalt export quota for the 2026-2027 period was set at 96,600 tons, a reduction of over 50% from the actual output level in 2024, indicating that the global cobalt supply will face a persistent structural tightening.

It is worth noting that the quota system includes strategic quotas directly controlled by the state, reflecting the Congolese government's intention to strengthen its voice in the global industrial chain through resource control and accelerate the development of local downstream processing industries.

On the policy implementation level, the approval progress of export quotas has become the focus of the market. Due to the slow progress of official procedures, actual export activities have not yet resumed by October. Considering that the shipping cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China takes about 2 to 3 months, the first batch of quota raw materials is expected to arrive at Chinese ports as early as the first quarter of 2026. This delay has led to a raw material gap in China's supply chain from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The continuous low arrival of cobalt intermediates at domestic ports has led to a social inventory of cobalt that has dropped to a historical low, which can only support a few weeks of consumer demand, and the entire industry chain has generally entered a stage of active inventory reduction.

Meanwhile, the domestic security situation in the DRC continues to pose potential risks. The conflict between the government forces and the M23 armed group in the eastern region shows no signs of easing, and geopolitical uncertainties loom over the main mineral belts. In addition, the recent announcement by the DRC government to extend the trade ban on key minerals such as tin, tungsten, and tantalum in conflict areas for another six months not only highlights the ongoing interference of regional turmoil on resource exports but also exacerbates the concerns of international buyers over the compliance and stability of supply chains.

Faced with the tightening of raw materials, all links in the industrial chain are actively adjusting their strategies. The downstream battery and material manufacturers are accelerating long-term agreement negotiations with large mining companies holding quotas, shifting the focus of procurement from "price first" to "supply guarantee", and "lock quantity but not price" has become a common choice in the industry. At the same time, the diversified layout of the supply chain has significantly accelerated - the nickel-cobalt integrated project and the power battery recycling industry in Indonesia have been given a higher strategic position to hedge the risk of supply contraction in the DRC. However, due to limited production scale, unbroken technical bottlenecks and longer construction period, these alternative sources are difficult to effectively make up for the supply gap in the medium and short term.

On the sentiment side of the market, the expectation of long-term supply tightening has been firmly established. Although the demand side is facing the transmission pressure of rapidly rising costs, purchasing behavior is becoming more cautious, and actual transactions have not significantly increased, the substantial shortage of raw materials still provides solid fundamental support for cobalt prices. The quota policy in the DRC has fundamentally reshaped the operation logic of cobalt prices, and the global cobalt supply chain has officially entered a new cycle dominated by resource countries and driven by supply constraints.

Supply contraction and demand resilience coexist.

The cobalt market fundamentals continue to tighten.

From a fundamental perspective, although the cobalt export quota policy of the DRC was officially implemented in October, the delay in approval has led to a continued decline in the import of raw materials. In October 2025, China imported 7,623 tons of cobalt wet-process intermediates (by physical quantity), a decrease of 22% compared to the previous month. Under the dual pressure of tight raw materials and high costs, cobalt smelters have significantly reduced production. In October, the output of refined cobalt was only 510 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90% and a decrease of 67% compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, battery demand has supported the production of cobalt sulfate and cobalt oxides: cobalt sulfate production reached 57,780 metal tons, up 20% year-on-year and up 2% quarter-on-quarter; while the production of cobalt trioxide was 109,000 tons, up 20% year-on-year and down 9% quarter-on-quarter. Overall, refined cobalt has entered a stage of inventory reduction, with a decrease of 17,170 tons of electrolytic cobalt and 9,640 metal tons of cobalt sulfate in October, and a decrease of 40 tons (physical) of cobalt trioxide.

The demand side has shown robust performance. The battery market continues to improve, and the overall consumption of cobalt is showing signs of recovery. In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode increased by 19% year-on-year and by 5% month-on-month; the production of lithium cobalt oxide cathode increased by 43% year-on-year and by 12% month-on-month. In terms of product structure, the proportion of high-nickel materials continues to decline, and the production share of NCM811 and NCM9 series and other high-nickel lithium cobalt oxide cathode decreased by 3% month-on-month, driving the cobalt consumption per unit product to rise. The consumer electronics market is also active, with the production of lithium cobalt oxide continuing to grow at a high rate, increasing by 75% year-on-year and by 4% month-on-month in October.

Terminal data shows that the new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with production and sales in October completing 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, an increase of 48% and 49.6% year-on-year. The new car sales accounted for 46.8% of the total car sales. In addition, the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter has steadily released the demand for small power and consumer batteries, and the consumer electronics field has remained active.

The structural gap between supply and demand is widening.

The cobalt price is entering an upward channel.

Looking ahead, the global cobalt market has officially entered a new cycle of structural shortage under the resonance of the export quota policy in the DRC and diversified demand. On the supply side, the policy-driven contraction in the DRC is rigid and long-term. Despite the accelerated layout of emerging production areas such as Indonesia, their annual capacity of about 32,000 tons and slow commissioning pace are far from enough to fill the huge gap left by the DRC. It is expected that the global cobalt supply and demand gap will expand to 122,000 tons in 2025, with the gap rate approaching 50%, and this severe situation is unlikely to be alleviated in the next two years.

More importantly, the demand side is experiencing structural changes. Besides the high-speed growth of the new energy vehicle sector and the rigid demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in high-end models, the accelerated commercialization of humanoid robots has also stimulated the demand for cobalt - global cobalt consumption in this sector is expected to exceed 34,000 tons by 2025. At the same time, the promotion of semi-solid battery mass production and the expansion of the energy storage market have jointly built a diversified demand pattern, providing strong support for cobalt prices.

Stocks and cost factors further strengthened the upward trend. The social inventory of domestic refined cobalt has dropped to an extremely low level, and downstream enterprises are eager to restock, with the "rushing to buy" mentality continuing to push up spot prices. The price of cobalt concentrate from the upstream has also strengthened, with the smelting and processing fee increasing from 8,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the solid support from the cost side has significantly narrowed the downward space for cobalt prices.

Overall, in the short term, the significant supply-demand mismatch between the peak production and sales season of new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter and the delay in the delivery of copper from the DRC's quota will maintain a high-level fluctuation in domestic and foreign cobalt prices. Although high prices may cause some small and medium-sized enterprises to be cautious, the rigid characteristics of core demand limit the space for adjustment. In the medium and long term, the quota policy for cobalt in the DRC will continue to be implemented until 2027. This rigid supply-side constraint and the diversified growth of demand will jointly push the cobalt price center systematically higher.

However, the rapid rise in cobalt prices will also accelerate the process of technological substitution. The continuous increase in the penetration of lithium iron phosphate batteries and the breakthrough in sodium-ion battery technology are both restricting the demand space for primary cobalt in the long term. At the same time, the intensification of the game between the upstream and downstream links of the industry chain may amplify market fluctuations. Cobalt prices are standing at a new crossroads shaped by resource sovereignty, technological evolution, and geopolitical factors.

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