Price trend

The price of silicomanganese remained sluggish this month, with both futures and spot prices declining in stages. While the manganese ore market still showed signs of upward pressure, and steel mills generally maintained stable operations during the off-season, their acceptance of high-priced silicomanganese resources was weak. Although there were some localized production cuts and maintenance shutdowns in silicomanganese producing areas, the overall supply pressure was not effectively alleviated, and both futures and spot transactions remained low, leading to sluggish factory sales and increased inventory pressure. According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, at the end of this month, the market price of silicomanganese (specification FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia was around 5,350-5,500 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,440.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.79% compared to the beginning of the month.

Influencing Factors

Severe Accumulation of Silicomanganese Inventory

Overall, the operating rates of silicomanganese plants in Inner Mongolia fluctuated slightly this month. A few plants were expected to ignite new capacity furnaces by the end of the month, affecting a daily output of approximately 200 tons. Some ordinary silicon furnaces intended to switch to producing other products, so overall output is not expected to change significantly. Production in Ningxia eased, and some manufacturers had already scheduled maintenance.

In Yunnan, southern China, production shutdowns had been largely completed. A factory in Xingyi, Guizhou, was undergoing maintenance due to a furnace issue, with the resumption date uncertain, impacting daily output by approximately 200 tons. Factories in Guangxi were primarily awaiting the implementation of next year's electricity pricing policy, with no clear conclusion yet. Factories in Guilin were maintaining a single-shift operation to avoid peak hours, with minimum electricity costs hovering around 0.3 RMB/kWh.

According to incomplete statistics, 14 ferromanganese plants in other parts of northern China started production in November, one plant in Northeast China resumed production in mid-November, and a factory in Shanxi completed maintenance and added one furnace in mid-November. By the end of the month, 23 furnaces in other production areas in northern China were in operation. The increased production and resumption of operations had not yet reached normal levels and will have a relatively small impact on November output. The total ferromanganese output in November is estimated at 79,700 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared to the previous month.

Slow sales at factories have led to inventory accumulation, further exacerbating the market surplus. Currently, manufacturers in Ningxia are experiencing severe inventory buildup, with high inventory levels putting further pressure on ferrosilicon prices. According to incomplete statistics, as of November 20th, the national inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises totaled 363,000 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons compared to the previous period. Specifically, Inner Mongolia held 52,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons; Ningxia 273,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; Guangxi 12,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons; Guizhou 7,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; (Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi) 7,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; and (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing) 11,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons.

The manganese ore market remained firm

The manganese ore market remained firm recently, with fewer low-price shipments and narrowing room for negotiation, resulting in stable transaction prices. Supported by costs, prices for South African semi-carbonate and high-iron ore at Tianjin Port had remained firm, while Gabonese ore supplies were tight and prices remained high. Australian ore, due to its cost-effectiveness, had seen increased market inquiries, with prices showing a steady upward trend. Inventory at Qinzhou Port was low, and spot prices hadslightly declined after the arrival of South African vessels. Australian and Gabonese lump ore prices had remained relatively stable, with factories mainly stocking up on futures ore.

.Data shows that currently, manganese ore lumps from Australia are quoted at 40-42 RMB/MTU at Tianjin Port, semi-carbonated ore at 34.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese ore lumps at 41-42 RMB/MTU; manganese ore lumps from Australia are quoted at 39.5-42 RMB/MTU at Qinzhou Port, semi-carbonated ore at 37-37.5 RMB/MTU, and Gabonese ore lumps at 40.5-41 RMB/MTU.

The coking coal market was weak recently. Futures prices fell below 1,200 RMB/ton, and port trading companies lowered their quotations. Some downstream companies accepted small quantities of goods, and market transactions were generally weak. The fourth round of coke price increases was fully implemented on November 27. The Mongolian coal market was limited by the decline in futures prices and lacked effective support. Domestic coking coal prices remained stable, lacking upward momentum. Upstream and downstream companies adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards future coal prices.

Downstream demand entered the off-season

According to relevant statistics, in mid-November 2025, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons, up 0.9% week-on-week and down 6.6% year-on-year. Data shows that as of the week ending November 21, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, down 0.62 percentage points week-on-week and up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year; weekly demand for silicomanganese was 121,407 tons, up 2.38% week-on-week.

Regarding steel mill bidding, HBIS Group's final price for silicomanganese in November was 5,820 RMB/ton, with the first round of inquiries at 5,750 RMB/ton. The October price for silicomanganese was also 5,820 RMB/ton. (The November 2024 price was 6,280 RMB/ton). HBIS Group's November silicomanganese procurement volume was 16,000 tons. October procurement volume: 16,500 tons. (November 2024 silicomanganese procurement volume: 12,300 tons).

Market Forecast:

In summary, entering the fourth quarter, seasonal factors led to a relatively weaker end-user demand and poor steel price performance. With steel mills entering maintenance phases and profits continuing to shrink, there was significant downward pressure on silicomanganese prices, resulting in a continuous decline in spot prices. Factories faced increased difficulty in shipping their products. Although weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly, the overall impact was minimal, and the supply and demand situation remained weak. SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will likely continue to fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

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